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Post by batsnacks on Jul 23, 2016 8:52:54 GMT -8
this is a spectator thread
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Post by batsnacks on Jul 25, 2016 15:09:08 GMT -8
Kawl's plan:
How many townies will peek mafia/sk?
assuming the most likely cop scenario of 1 cop, 3 mafia, and .5 serial killers, that's 8.5 VTs peeking into a pool of 13 players.
if townies RNG their peek theres a 27% chance of hitting mafia/SK.
so if they go with his plan about 3.51 townies will peek a mafia/sk, divided by 10 non-mafia members, will narrow down the possibilities for mafia by about 35% in one phase.
I think all of that is right.
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Post by batsnacks on Jul 25, 2016 15:11:37 GMT -8
I don't think it's a good plan for town.
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Post by crimsonfist on Jul 25, 2016 15:45:21 GMT -8
I was discussing this with Ty a while back. Aside from a few people missing the point, I don't think it's a terrible plan. For one, the "fake peek" won't be purely RNG, but somewhat based on reads. For another, whilst it does narrow down possibilities for scum, if they kill purely based on that, it gives town more information to go on (scum assumed that they were the cop so their reads must be right). The biggest issue is that it forces the cop to claim if they find scum, which you could argue that they should do anyway.
I think the calling it a fake claim is weird though. You just have to present it as a hypothetical, you're not actually fake claiming cop. And no idea why they think that a one shot cop would need to do this. Why bother hiding once you've used your shot?
I'd like to see how it goes at least. It's also true that scum are terrible at following through on killing cops even if they have them figured out.
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Post by batsnacks on Jul 25, 2016 18:19:39 GMT -8
so who's mafia?
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Post by batsnacks on Jul 25, 2016 18:20:04 GMT -8
I am very curious for guesses and odds on who U think
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Post by batsnacks on Jul 25, 2016 18:45:33 GMT -8
Cop discussion is dominating a lot of this phase so far and I am worried town is focusing too hard on this one role. A cop is more likely than other town power roles BUT about 1/3rd of the possible setups contain zero cops. and I still think the peek plan is bad no way I'm trading (optimistically) 3 confirmed non-cops to mafia in exchange for the supposed benefits.
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Post by timeaisis on Jul 25, 2016 21:41:40 GMT -8
I have never actually seen the peek strategy before and it doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me.
I'm gathering that: 1. Cop investigates someone at night 2. D2 vanilla townies pick someone to claim that they have investigated and say "X is town". Cop also gives results (only if he/she finds town) 3. ? ? ? 4. Profit
I don't see what it gets them. I get that it's a cover up, but it's effectively the same as the cop just keeping quiet until he hits scum. Unless I'm missing something obvious. Scum knows who town is. This just opens the door for mafia to pretend to be vanilla by jumpking on the "peek" bandwagon.
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Post by crimsonfist on Jul 26, 2016 1:35:30 GMT -8
1. Cop investigates someone at night 2. D2, everyone posts "If I was the cop, I would have investigated YNNNY and got Spider as a result" 3. The real cop posts their actual results along with all the hypotheticals so that if they flip, town has unambiguous breadcrumbs to look back on
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Post by batsnacks on Jul 26, 2016 11:21:43 GMT -8
Here we goooooo
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Post by timeaisis on Jul 26, 2016 12:05:48 GMT -8
1. Cop investigates someone at night 2. D2, everyone posts "If I was the cop, I would have investigated YNNNY and got Spider as a result" 3. The real cop posts their actual results along with all the hypotheticals so that if they flip, town has unambiguous breadcrumbs to look back on Yeah, I mean I get it. Just seems like a lot of effort for a little gain. Maybe there is more gain that I'm missing. That was a long post by Hyper.
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Post by crimsonfist on Jul 26, 2016 12:21:17 GMT -8
Bet they lynch/out the cop today making the entire discussion completely worthless
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Post by Hyperactivity on Jul 26, 2016 13:16:06 GMT -8
Based on my history as scum Tbh, as scum I'm totally cool with peeking. I like our odds with it Do you guys want to know who scum is btw?
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Post by Hyperactivity on Jul 26, 2016 13:35:25 GMT -8
This is now the official "Hyper brags about how much his teammates will wreck town" thread
Have fun
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Post by Hyperactivity on Jul 26, 2016 13:38:57 GMT -8
Btw We're not scum, call us M.O.U.S please. It stands for "Mafia Of Unusual Size"
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Post by Hyperactivity on Jul 26, 2016 13:57:44 GMT -8
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Post by batsnacks on Jul 27, 2016 5:39:46 GMT -8
Originally posted by Hyperactivity:
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Post by batsnacks on Jul 27, 2016 5:40:24 GMT -8
#scumslip
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Post by batsnacks on Jul 27, 2016 7:55:36 GMT -8
I'm not going to spoil anything but
This might be a really insane night phase
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Post by batsnacks on Jul 27, 2016 8:07:36 GMT -8
oh shit
yes
I definitely think it will be
omg
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Post by Hyperactivity on Jul 27, 2016 13:08:37 GMT -8
That feeling when you're told the cop and vigilante have targeted your buddies and then you wake up and the cop is dead Too good
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Post by Lone_Prodigy on Jul 27, 2016 13:14:40 GMT -8
I guess that makes up for the somewhat-lucky D1 vote. I didn't really scum-read Hyper because scum Hyper and town Hyper play pretty similarly. Kind of sucks that I finally get a PR and I'm offed so early. I'm usually pretty good at coasting to late game too. My N1 target was cabot because he was one of the late Hyper votes and seemed to just wait until he had a clear majority.
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Post by Roytheone on Jul 27, 2016 13:15:51 GMT -8
That feeling when you're told the cop and vigilante have targeted your buddies and then you wake up and the cop is dead Too good This was like batman all over again. Town pr had all the right actions to royally fuck over scum, but somehow scum do the exact right actions to counter it all.
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Post by Hyperactivity on Jul 27, 2016 13:17:05 GMT -8
Dammit, wanted melon to vote on me much sooner, suspected this would happen
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Post by Lone_Prodigy on Jul 27, 2016 13:18:52 GMT -8
Also I thought I would be suspicious enough to not be targeted. Oh well.
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Post by Hyperactivity on Jul 27, 2016 13:20:03 GMT -8
That feeling when you're told the cop and vigilante have targeted your buddies and then you wake up and the cop is dead Too good This was like batman all over again. Town pr had all the right actions to royally fuck over scum, but somehow scum do the exact right actions to counter it all. ooohhh oooohhhhhhhhhhh
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Post by Hyperactivity on Jul 27, 2016 13:20:48 GMT -8
Also I thought I would be suspicious enough to not be targeted. Oh well. You guessed the entire scum team
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Post by Lone_Prodigy on Jul 27, 2016 13:25:01 GMT -8
I was actually going to ease off melon (she plays like me and I'm town) and go in on Fireblend today (why the late vote). Probably should've voted yesterday though.
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Post by Ourobolus on Jul 27, 2016 13:34:20 GMT -8
I guess that makes up for the somewhat-lucky D1 vote. I didn't really scum-read Hyper because scum Hyper and town Hyper play pretty similarly. Kind of sucks that I finally get a PR and I'm offed so early. I'm usually pretty good at coasting to late game too. My N1 target was cabot because he was one of the late Hyper votes and seemed to just wait until he had a clear majority. You had a PR before, Mr. Trump!
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Post by Hyperactivity on Jul 27, 2016 13:51:44 GMT -8
I guess that makes up for the somewhat-lucky D1 vote. I didn't really scum-read Hyper because scum Hyper and town Hyper play pretty similarly. Kind of sucks that I finally get a PR and I'm offed so early. I'm usually pretty good at coasting to late game too. My N1 target was cabot because he was one of the late Hyper votes and seemed to just wait until he had a clear majority. You had a PR before, Mr. Trump! He also died the night after I was lynched. He also was arguably the most powerful pr I'm telling you, scum wins once I go to the sacrificial altar
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