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Post by batsnacks on Jul 29, 2016 15:25:15 GMT -8
Honestly, Sorian's in real trouble now. If they lynch Melon, Ynnny will shoot him and he'll be forced to roleblock. No night kill will come up. Then Ynnny can come clean with all the information and lead a clean lynch against Sorian. And this is not accounting for anyone else picking up patterns connecting Melon to Sorian, of which there are several. oh yeah I forgot Sorian can't roleblock and kill in the same night. rip.
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Post by Lone_Prodigy on Jul 29, 2016 15:26:45 GMT -8
Oh he can't do both at once? RIP.
I think he gambles and shoots YNNNY. They kill each other, town wins.
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Post by Sophia on Jul 29, 2016 15:30:31 GMT -8
Does YNNNY know Sorian is the last scum tho? That's the question that remains.
If she doesn't know Sorian is the last scum, he can safely shoot her.
If she does knos, then he has no choice but to roleblock or lose.
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Post by Sophia on Jul 29, 2016 15:31:22 GMT -8
TLDR: Sorian needs to be as town as possible when Melon flips. If there's any suspicion on him at all, Ynnny will know where to shoot.
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Post by batsnacks on Jul 29, 2016 15:34:00 GMT -8
she shot at Sorian last night :/
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Post by Hyperactivity on Jul 29, 2016 15:34:39 GMT -8
Does YNNNY know Sorian is the last scum tho? That's the question that remains. If she doesn't know Sorian is the last scum, he can safely shoot her. If she does knos, then he has no choice but to roleblock or lose. YNNY thought terra was scum And again, for believing terra was bs'ing about something he was 100% honest about
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Post by Lone_Prodigy on Jul 29, 2016 15:35:29 GMT -8
Yeah Sorian may be able to wriggle out of this one if he shoots YNNNY and she doesn't shoot him tonight.
melon is basically clearing ty the longer this goes on.
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Post by Sophia on Jul 29, 2016 15:36:33 GMT -8
she shot at Sorian last night :/ Does YNNNY know Sorian is the last scum tho? That's the question that remains. If she doesn't know Sorian is the last scum, he can safely shoot her. If she does knos, then he has no choice but to roleblock or lose. YNNY thought terra was scum And again, for believing terra was bs'ing about something he was 100% honest about
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Post by Sophia on Jul 29, 2016 15:40:57 GMT -8
If Ynnny shot Sorian last night, there is no chance he will be able to shoot her and get away with it. He has to roleblock, plain and simple.
At which point Ynnny can reveal she targeted Melon, got roleblocked, targeted Sorian, got roleblocked, and Melon flipped scum...
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Post by Sophia on Jul 29, 2016 15:46:14 GMT -8
Ynnny needs to check the role PMs tho. Because unless Bats/Time deviated, the C9+ setup says "may" for a Serial Killer.
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Post by Hyperactivity on Jul 29, 2016 15:53:07 GMT -8
Melon has two plays here, Spriam should stay on the bus
1. Counterclaim: Time for this has passed
2. Bring out the SK. The main issue here is she's flat out claimed ynny is wrong, but that can be explained
A post like:
"What if, ynny suspects me, but for a completely different reason? One that very well may be faulty, but ynny believes enough"
From here A. Come out as SK. Although she could claim ynny is a 1-shot vig that shot her once, and a 2nd to make sure she wasn't blocked, that gets melon nowhere
She instead would have to say that scum have blocked her past two nights, she doubts she can win at this point, scum want to earn brownie points. She's just playing for fun at this point. Knows YNNY is bs'ing because she chose investigation-immune
The main purpose of plan A is to plant the idea of scum blocking the SK into town's head. "Melon flipped scum, but did that story really come out of nowhere? Have scum been blocking the SK?" If, on N3, ynny doesn't kill Sorian, but a townie instead, Sorian can try and spin that she might be the SK
B. Tell the truth, accuse ynny of being SK. "I am scum. I know ynny is bs'ing because we've blocked her the past 2 nights. Don't believe me? If there is a 3rd C, we should have an SK, right? (I think?). Where is that SK been the last 2 nights?
An SK Ynny knows scum probably knows her. In an attempt to survive, she's made this gambit. To both draw the doctor towards her, as she's probably investigation immune, and to quickly get rid of scum. As it stands, scum have leverage over the SK, so long as they still have 2 members. If she gets me, and I've screwed up at this point enough to catch her, than she has a much better shot at eliminating the scum team tonight."
I really want to see B happen. It would be funny
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Post by Hyperactivity on Jul 29, 2016 15:55:07 GMT -8
Cmon scum team, melon is doomed.
Salvage the ynny lynch from this situation. It would be SO beautiful. Among the greatest of scum gambits in GAFIA history
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Post by Hyperactivity on Jul 29, 2016 15:56:20 GMT -8
That plan is fucking crazy
God dammit, just go for broke XD
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Post by Sophia on Jul 29, 2016 15:58:18 GMT -8
Logically, 2B is probably the best outcome. But Melon has created her own problem by not immediately claiming it.
It is true the best thing she can do is try to paint Ynnny as a negative force to town tho. I actually think that's what she's trying to do. But she's going about it the wrong way.
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Post by Lone_Prodigy on Jul 29, 2016 15:58:42 GMT -8
Too bad it's semi-open, or else you could get melon to claim copycat or something.
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Post by Sophia on Jul 29, 2016 16:04:41 GMT -8
Also, now I get to be the one to say this, but Splinter's logic doesn't follow his conclusion. =P
1. There are still a significant amount of unconfirmed townies in this game. 2. Even if the first statement is true, how did he reach the conclusion that Ty is scum from that?
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Post by Hyperactivity on Jul 29, 2016 16:05:28 GMT -8
Logically, 2B is probably the best outcome. But Melon has created her own problem by not immediately claiming it. It is true the best thing she can do is try to paint Ynnny as a negative force to town tho. I actually think that's what she's trying to do. But she's going about it the wrong way. No Being scum in actuality is the easiest way to explain away her actions. But with the bandwagon forming, melon sees no choice As to why town should help scum over SK, it's simple: A. They have a clearer target for the SK. B. The last scum will try to self preserve, but due to (melon/last scum is roleblocker), they can't take care of SK. SK isn't sure of the last scum, otherwise she would have accused them first, melon was suspicious anyways. YNNY could very well hit townies till she finally hits my partner. Getting rid of the SK gets rid of the possibility of 2 bus. Sure, YNNY and partner could double eliminate tonight, but how sure can she be about who the last partner is?
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Post by crimsonfist on Jul 29, 2016 16:06:01 GMT -8
There's always the risk that ynnny is taking advantage of no majority and comes clean about that gambit at some point.
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Post by Hyperactivity on Jul 29, 2016 16:07:29 GMT -8
Feel sorta bad for melon right now tbh
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Post by Sophia on Jul 29, 2016 16:10:36 GMT -8
Logically, 2B is probably the best outcome. But Melon has created her own problem by not immediately claiming it. It is true the best thing she can do is try to paint Ynnny as a negative force to town tho. I actually think that's what she's trying to do. But she's going about it the wrong way. No Being scum in actuality is the easiest way to explain away her actions. But with the bandwagon forming, melon sees no choice As to why town should help scum over SK, it's simple: A. They have a clearer target for the SK. B. The last scum will try to self preserve, but due to (melon/last scum is roleblocker), they can't take care of SK. SK isn't sure of the last scum, otherwise she would have accused them first, melon was suspicious anyways. YNNY could very well hit townies till she finally hits my partner. Getting rid of the SK gets rid of the possibility of 2 bus. Sure, YNNY and partner could double eliminate tonight, but how sure can she be about who the last partner is? I would be very surprised if Ynnny doesn't have an idea. She tried to shoot Sorian too, remember. At any rate, I don't think there's a very good counter-claim Melon can make anyhow at this point. I'm curious to see if she implicated Sorian somehow. Feel sorta bad for melon right now tbh Yeah, I do too. Ynnny's planned this out very well.
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Post by Sophia on Jul 29, 2016 16:15:30 GMT -8
If someone suspects Sorian, they're not voicing it right now. That's good for him.
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Post by Lone_Prodigy on Jul 29, 2016 16:19:36 GMT -8
There's always the risk that ynnny is taking advantage of no majority and comes clean about that gambit at some point. 5 minutes left:
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Post by Hyperactivity on Jul 29, 2016 16:21:04 GMT -8
No Being scum in actuality is the easiest way to explain away her actions. But with the bandwagon forming, melon sees no choice As to why town should help scum over SK, it's simple: A. They have a clearer target for the SK. B. The last scum will try to self preserve, but due to (melon/last scum is roleblocker), they can't take care of SK. SK isn't sure of the last scum, otherwise she would have accused them first, melon was suspicious anyways. YNNY could very well hit townies till she finally hits my partner. Getting rid of the SK gets rid of the possibility of 2 bus. Sure, YNNY and partner could double eliminate tonight, but how sure can she be about who the last partner is? I would be very surprised if Ynnny doesn't have an idea. She tried to shoot Sorian too, remember. At any rate, I don't think there's a very good counter-claim Melon can make anyhow at this point. I'm curious to see if she implicated Sorian somehow. Feel sorta bad for melon right now tbh Yeah, I do too. Ynnny's planned this out very well. Sorry, got lazy with the quotes How exactly does YNNY admit to town who she thinks the last scum is? She tried to shoot Sorian, was blocked. But she tried to shoot melon and was blocked. What do these two have to do with each other? Scum can't know who her targets were, after al And doesn't ynny essentially have to admit to lying about the cop claim to back up her assertion? Sure, she says she's a vigilante, but now the rest of town knows that melon wasn't, at least no entirely, lying? Suddenly, SK/vigilante goes from being a far shot posdibility an admitted scum is putting out, to the only two possibilities available Even if town leans towards ynny being town, melon has turned a 90-10 posdibility of ynny not being lynched to say, a 65-35. The chances of the Doctor protecting a claimed or just dropped. Of melon is going to be lynched, she needs to be setting up the situation for Sorian, and that means keeping Soriam off the lynch plate for as long as possible
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Post by Sophia on Jul 29, 2016 16:43:27 GMT -8
Yeah, I guess you're right. Ynnny doesn't have much of a way to confirm to town that Sorian is the last scum. She just needs to try and keep shooting him.
That being said, it's also in her best interest to not say a word about her fake claim.
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Post by Hyperactivity on Jul 29, 2016 16:48:18 GMT -8
yeah, L_P, ynny freely giving up that she lied today is sure fire loss for her
there is NOTHING ynny can prove with her being blocked. At the same time, it vindicates melon, who had been saying ynny couldn't be a cop, because she herself is an ordinary townie
Forget ynny being lynched as an SK, unless that was the last post of the day, ynny could very well create a reverse bandwagon onto herself
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Post by batsnacks on Jul 29, 2016 16:56:30 GMT -8
No Being scum in actuality is the easiest way to explain away her actions. But with the bandwagon forming, melon sees no choice As to why town should help scum over SK, it's simple: A. They have a clearer target for the SK. B. The last scum will try to self preserve, but due to (melon/last scum is roleblocker), they can't take care of SK. SK isn't sure of the last scum, otherwise she would have accused them first, melon was suspicious anyways. YNNY could very well hit townies till she finally hits my partner. Getting rid of the SK gets rid of the possibility of 2 bus. Sure, YNNY and partner could double eliminate tonight, but how sure can she be about who the last partner is? I would be very surprised if Ynnny doesn't have an idea. She tried to shoot Sorian too, remember. At any rate, I don't think there's a very good counter-claim Melon can make anyhow at this point. I'm curious to see if she implicated Sorian somehow. Feel sorta bad for melon right now tbh Yeah, I do too. Ynnny's planned this out very well. melon could claim town roleblocker. It's not great but it is something.
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Post by batsnacks on Jul 29, 2016 16:59:12 GMT -8
Or Sorian could. Success rate is low but maybe it is nonzero?
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Post by batsnacks on Jul 29, 2016 17:00:32 GMT -8
*success rate is maybe nonzero???
idk I think they're totally dead otherwise
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Post by batsnacks on Jul 29, 2016 17:02:07 GMT -8
They're probably still totally dead but there is a small chance it would be slower lol
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Post by Sophia on Jul 29, 2016 17:08:43 GMT -8
I would be very surprised if Ynnny doesn't have an idea. She tried to shoot Sorian too, remember. At any rate, I don't think there's a very good counter-claim Melon can make anyhow at this point. I'm curious to see if she implicated Sorian somehow. Yeah, I do too. Ynnny's planned this out very well. melon could claim town roleblocker. It's not great but it is something. Hmm... would that work? Roleblocker and Serial Killer in the same setup?
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