So, I've just realized something, and I want to apologize. It's not that the Doctor didn't protect Scrafty. He couldn't. His role is limited to targets at the same table, and he was at a different table that Scrafty. So that sucks.
Just checking in, you were pretty low activity during Day 1. Everything okay?
err, yeah still want to play. if I'm like that day 2 again I'll drop out, don't want to be low activity with the cool role you have and everything
will hopefully decide on a target later today
I still need your target. If you don't respond before tomorrow morning, I'll just RNG it.
Alright, just gonna get some thoughts down to help me decide this, feel free to post this to dead or after game or whatever
I'm considering 4 main aspects here important to who my targets should be
1) Survivability - how comfortably can I expect my target to survive to end game. I'm not interested in this regard in higher activity players, who are often early scum targets, scum themselves, or mid game targets. Just as an offhand estimate, only about 3-4 mid to high activity players typically make it to the end game max
2) Target reaction next day - This is most important for tonight's target. My guess is that my target will most likely reveal they were doused. thankfully, I don't expect a fireman, due to the difficulty of the win condition, so this won't hurt too much in that way. However, I suspect getting doused will become similar to insanity, poisons, or vote blocking; town will take it to mean the target is more likely to be town. However, the specific flavor of being doused, as an arsonist, a serial killer type role, won't entirely help me in this endeavour.
N1 is important because I'm choosing the messenger who will tell everyone about me. Unfortunately, I can't give it to any one person who is overly suspicious, but, I can try and use any possible additional responses. For example, an investigative pr that doesn't play too smartly, imo, could very well out himself. Players with lower enthusiasm are also more likely to claim if they are an ordinary villager and are either poisoned or slightly in danger of a lynch, providing me a piece that's likely to survive till endgame.
Players reactions to me will most likely shift day 4 or 5, when they ask why I'm not burning everything down. Day 3 if I'm unlucky. At this point, the leverage I get over the days' proceedings drastically decreases, and my moves past that discovery are likely to be dismissed.
3) Scum reaction - to put it simply, scum will be my friends in the early game. The day 4/5 limit is especially important here, as it marks the players scum believe are most likely goners. This is a pro should I choose to go after low activity, towns leaning players, because I tell that it's open town on the others. I doubt scum will lean towards the chances I can win with them though, arsonist flavor too specific.
The game here changes entirely if I hit a scum member. An early game scum hit puts me from side concern to prime target. Late game scum hits, when the players start to guess at my harmlessness, are worse. In fact, one of the worst, if not the worst scenario for me is a scum player I've targeted killing each of my remaining targets, because it would take at least 2-3 days of my targets' deaths for me topping out their relative immunity to said deaths.
Early early game, scum won't be as useful, as they are more likely to hit my targets or me. As such, I need to make myself a non-target for them. While I'm REALLY annoyed at my activity day 1, I will have to keep a lower activity, similar to what Christina Mackenzie did in Harry Potter. Unfortunately and fortunately, I've been lower activity in many of my recent games, so should anyone try to bother me about why "Hyperactivity is not hyperactive", basically meta gaming, their argument still falls flat. Essentially, I can play the early game similar to what kitty and I decided to do in love boat - basically stay in that neutral to slightly suspicious zone where scum can't kill you but you can attempt to defend yourself from any lynch. Leaning township in people's eyes would make me a target for when scum need a quiet night to safely kill a to any player. This does have the downside of leaving you more prone to vigilantes, which terrifies me, because I believe in myself to predict scum moves more than town moves
However, I'm absolutely certain that playing to utilize scum without some sort of shake up at some point will only get me to end game. It can't win me the game, as people may notice shifts from low to high post counts, me playing in that way when it most likely not safe for me to claim any sort of pr, etc.
4) Table positioning - I'll hand this one to launch, his play is better than expected (or a case of me overthinking things). Launch is hiding things, fun. His role acts as a minor protective role, both confusing scums moves, and protecting players. Should he being lying and he is able to choose which table he shifts it must be table 1 or 2 (hold the captain obvious accusations). Table 2, his own table, mainly serves to protect him while mess up scum. But if he was aiming to do that, he could've easily bluffed his role, or hidden it, so as to attract PRs. Table 1 could be a WIFOM choice QUACK while predicting this line of thought.
But should QUACK not have been able to choose the table, the result is the same, right? But if Launch had more utility to his role, he would be more likely to go for table 2. it would also explain his usage of m this ability of it is indeed random
but what if launch is just gambit ting to mess with scum, blah blah blah, etc....
Tbh, this debate is too much of a WIFOM. I can see launch making any one of these plays.
The other aspect of this is people possibly seeing me. This could easily screw me over if I play this wrong and gave people see or not see me at inappropriate times. Given the fact that my targets are told they were doused, I doubt this is dangan style, but I very may be caught by a watcher that is a dangan style roamed, or people that sense activity, etc.
Given all of these, I've narrowed my list to 4 targets: myself, Xamtheking, Kalor, and Terrabyte20XX.
Terra is on my table, and an example of a player I believe could make it to endgame.
Kalor is the same on the other side.
Xamtheking combines many of my ideal characteristics - he would reveal early tomorrow, and has survived incredibly long in games due to people underestimating him. However, I first wish to see how he does in this game before acting on him, especially after Ace Attorney.
Hyperactivity - 2015 GAFIA MVP, mainly because he scares me in how quickly he'll put me. No, seriously, I'm considering me for a couple different reasons.
1. I can safely assume that the target I intended to hit was hit, because I never hit anything
2. I believe this guarantees me early game protection from scum as a target taken care of
3. As such a low activity player based off of day 1, targeting me makes sense for an arsonist who needs to kill an x number of people. Late game it becomes more of an issue
4. Town brownie points. Useful early on, but less relevant later game. This gift gets delivered twice, because when I think of my past game performances, I can only think of Cthulhu and parts of MGS as games where I gave it my all as town, where as certain parts of my scum strategy have become autopilot for me. My lower activity (not day 1 level, I promise) may make certain people lump me into an ordinary town. I even have the option to do what I did in MGS, stupidly claim ordinary, although I doubt it would work well with me having made the same mistake and called people out for it too.
The major risks of this:
1. Movement day 2 could still screw me over, if I suddenly get up from my chair night 2 after night 1.
2. I don't know the flavor of getting doused, RETRO THIS IS MY ONE MAIN QUESTION
Is my flavor basic, with it only telling my target they have been "doused"?
If no comment, then no comment.
3. I lose my arguably easiest target - N1 targets are pretty crucial. I don't believe this is as crucial as with scum, where they should always go for it imo, but it could cost me
Also, as I'm typing, I'm thinking of two other possibilities
I suspect Fireblend will be under fire tomorrow, and my dousing him could completely change how both he and I are reacted too. However, I'd rather not have said degree of unpredictability in the early gand
I could also make a prediction as to which mid high player is most likely to survive till end game, however, I'm not sure I can do much than narrow down a decently large group. In addition, I want the mid game to influence which medium high player Id like to survive
Yeah, sorry for wall of text, just want to get some thoughts down. My role essentially excels in mid game imo. I can play conventional safe, or try to string certain types of players in a row to give a certain impression, however I believe the "doused" aspect of my role limits this. Trying to change my behavior post players figuring out the lack of a death threat would be both dangerous and probably futile
Post by Hyperactivity on May 4, 2016 4:45:44 GMT -8
Nin1000 reveal does nothing. A smart pr doesn't say yes or no. Asmart ordinary realizes this and does the same. A smart neutral or scum does the same
It's a power that would have beena million times more useful at the end of the game, with more data
Ty4on just made a error, if I was arso I go for him tonight, no questions asked
Overall though, camjo is at the point where, while I think he could get to an endgame, he won't win it. After this initial set, he's right I the middle of the pack for getting discovered by process of elimination at the end