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Post by absolutbro on Nov 27, 2015 14:30:05 GMT -8
Well... this is certainly something. Just got home and saw the PM from Retro. Going to give this an actual read and possibly peruse the thread for comparative purposes. We'll see if I can figure something out.
Or end up dead, the likelihood of which seems to have suddenly gone up.
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Post by absolutbro on Nov 27, 2015 14:31:55 GMT -8
avatar working this time?
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Post by Sorian on Nov 27, 2015 15:03:55 GMT -8
You do have an avatar now, yes.
Welcome to the danger zone!
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Post by Sorian on Nov 27, 2015 18:11:24 GMT -8
Might as well dig a little deeper while I can. So why did you pick Absolut?
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Post by Mazre on Nov 28, 2015 7:46:12 GMT -8
Now whether I reveal you or not is the question. I took into account that you might have been trying to trick me but calling you out on it if you are Scum Mazre was all risk and no reward, but I also have to couple that with your claim still not making sense to me. First off, your role name, The Faceless Old Woman Who Secretly Lives In Everyone's Homes, careless typo by you or by retro but that is not the character's name so that's an issue for me. Couple that with the role you have. I'm inviting people to a gossip chat because Cecil is busy at the radio station so he needs me to go out and connect with the community. What's your character's reasoning? The faceless old woman has no business inviting people out to a nightly chat? Her character and role seem prefect and destined for a tracker or watcher so yes, I have some lingering issues here. As for AbsolutBro when he comes in, what you do is your prerogative. I think Mazre is scum and Mazre probably feels the same about me. On the surface, I'd imagine looking at this thread would make you feel there is some scum contact in here so what you do is on you. Anything you say, I will be passing to my gossip chat because I am near 100% town read on both of them. Role name was a direct copy from my PM, that one is on Retro. Reasoning - As one of Nightvale's longest residents I thought it was time to reach out and meet some new people while becoming more involved in the community. After some thought I discovered figured out that wearing a mask and hood I could talk to people with less chance of freaking them out, there's lots of hooded figures at Rico's which makes it an ideal place to convene and talk. There's this additional gem from Retro as well - (Why can't you tell who all the other players secretly are if you live in all of their homes? It's just a game. You should really just relax.) For the record in spite of our bumping heads here in gossip chat I really don't consider you to be scum, I can't rule it out completely but the narrative to make that approach reasonable just doesn't pan out to me.
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Post by Mazre on Nov 28, 2015 7:48:34 GMT -8
Might as well dig a little deeper while I can. So why did you pick Absolut? Seemed the safest choice out of the remainder of our proposed list from night 1. squidyj is acting erratic and has pretty much dropped off the face of the Earth, tl21xx is still suspect though I lean towards his power/claim being legit, flush was my other choice and it mainly came down to a gut check.
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Post by absolutbro on Nov 28, 2015 10:29:04 GMT -8
I appreciate the vote of confidence.
Without knowing what has gone on in Sorian's chat, I obviously can't take his knowing about the victory condition at face value. Occam's razor might come into play (double paranoia vs. simply being wrong), but honestly double paranoia seems reasonable in this game.
IF Mazre is scum, it would explain why Sorian didn't die N1: they planned to "recruit" you again. (Naturally this is not actually recruiting you, but having you here to pump for information would be useful). That said, it would be an interesting ploy since Sorian survived N1. Sorian having an unfortunate "accident" would put pressure on Mazre as scum.
The inverse also being true. Should Mazre die and flip Scum, were I not dead I would almost certainly begin to suspect Sorian's Taco Stand is, in fact, Scum chat.
Unless two of the three of us die, in which case the culprit becomes obvious, but too late to really do anything about it.
All of that mess aside, since I really can't do much to resolve it now:
Mike_Hawk689: I think we can all agree he mostly reads town at this point? It's not his first game according to the list, but I suspect it's his second? His posts have been vagueish and nigh-useless, but they tend to feel more like he just doesn't have anything to contribute rather than being intentionally vague.
I'm posting that here rather than the main thread (during the day phase obviously) mostly because I'd rather not get the main thread back on Mike; it's too distracting.
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Post by Sorian on Nov 28, 2015 11:33:16 GMT -8
Mike is hard to say and Mazre might be a good authority on him since he has played with him before. Mike always came off as a bit erratic to me and he kind of acted this same way in Archer but he was scum there. He is putting himself out there way more though than in Archer, he was more reserved there until it became obvious he was scum. I do read him as town currently but he does seem to be heavy handed in making sure that no one suspects him which I still find weird.
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Post by Sorian on Nov 28, 2015 15:59:29 GMT -8
I'm not going to reveal who I invited to my gossip chat last night so anything I pass along will be either from myself, from Coppa, or from person B.
From Coppa, in regards to Mike, he is leaning town on Mike but is not very strong on it. He creates a lot of friction which is townie but then his "See I'm not scum!" comments come off as scummy.
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Post by Mazre on Nov 29, 2015 15:13:45 GMT -8
Mike is hard to say and Mazre might be a good authority on him since he has played with him before. Mike always came off as a bit erratic to me and he kind of acted this same way in Archer but he was scum there. He is putting himself out there way more though than in Archer, he was more reserved there until it became obvious he was scum. I do read him as town currently but he does seem to be heavy handed in making sure that no one suspects him which I still find weird. I don't have a particularly strong recollection of Mike from the Archer game, he was more or less minimally active most of the game (which I guess was the whole point). We really only came down on him due to Ynnny roleblocking him 3 nights in a row, and unless I misremember he and someone else roleclaimed Pam roughly the same time.
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Post by Retro on Nov 30, 2015 11:17:43 GMT -8
Thread is currently locked.
With Mazre dead, the thread will now remain open at nights, but no new players will be invited.
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Post by palmer on Dec 4, 2015 10:38:52 GMT -8
Unlocked
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Post by Sorian on Dec 4, 2015 10:42:32 GMT -8
Alright Bro, just me and you. Could you role claim please?
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Post by absolutbro on Dec 4, 2015 10:44:59 GMT -8
Alright Bro, just me and you. Could you role claim please? Plain old ordinary town. I feel so, so vindicated on squidyj though, holy shit.
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Post by Sorian on Dec 4, 2015 10:47:07 GMT -8
Your reasoning was still off though, Mazre didn't know Squidy was scum.
You sure you are ordinary? You didn't kill Mazre? You can tell me, I really have no qualms with helping neutrals if need be.
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Post by absolutbro on Dec 4, 2015 10:58:46 GMT -8
Your reasoning was still off though, Mazre didn't know Squidy was scum. You sure you are ordinary? You didn't kill Mazre? You can tell me, I really have no qualms with helping neutrals if need be. It's true Mazre couldn't know, which means I still think there is one in the list. Maybe Ultrajay, but I'm still convinced only because it is totally what I'd do as scum. I promise you, 100% boring ordinary town. If I were a SK I'm not sure I would have killed Mazre right away. Let him invite someone else first so I had someone else to be a suspect. And the vindication is more from his arguing about my comment on him asking for my identity as the person in this chat. The only one who should have cared would be the scum not in scum chat. Town could find out through you, or someone in your chat if you died.
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Post by Sorian on Dec 4, 2015 11:07:07 GMT -8
Good call on that last point. Fair.
I'm skeptical that somehow in someway that this other killer can read these chats, either because they are in here or they just have the ability to read them so I am just going to say this here and I am going to say it in Jerry's Tacos too.
Killer person, you are awesome and thank you for killing Mazre, if you would like to be best buddies with me, then I actually want you to kill Mike_Hawk. I said Seath publicly to gauge if you are friendly with town and now I am giving you a different suspect to see if you are in contact with us here. Thank you in advance if I am not talking to air.
So with two deaths tonight, I might die now, so I'll try to post any and all of my thoughts in here and in the other chat. You are outed so I'd love it if you could pass anything important along since I prefer my other chat-mates stay hidden for as long as possible.
In terms of what my plan was (this is great, I'm such a bumbling drunk when it comes to mafia), I thought that Scrafty was our investigator and that she got a red check on Razmos last night. With the dual lynch, I had the bright idea to test out Scrafty in my head. We lynch Razmos (the person who would have been theoretically checked) and Squidy (the person who was putting so much heat onto Razmos from day 1). In my mind only one of them would be scum, if Razmos was scum then boom done, it was a clean investigation. If Squidy was scum and Razmos was inno then it was all a set up from the start and scum had a framer targeting Razmos each night just waiting for the investigator to hit the trap and reveal themselves.
Obviously, THIS WAS NOT THE CASE AT ALL, since Razmos shows up as town regardless. So lolololol to me, I suck, but I did at least say from the start that it was a low risk plan since Squidy and Razmos had been scummy as fuck anyway so proper reads beat out PRs once again.
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Post by Sorian on Dec 4, 2015 16:57:02 GMT -8
Alright, I'm going to peruse parts of the thread and post my findings in here. Like I said, I would like you to be my primary link to passing along information to the thread in the event that I die so I hope you don't mind. We can drop the formalities so Ty4on and UltraJay are the two people in my other thread, they are both claiming ordinary as well. I did not invite anyone today, I have a plan and if I live to do it then great, if not, no huge loss. I'm of the opinion, and you can tell me if you disagree, that Squidy never got reunited with the scum team. Based on Razmos' conversation with me at the end during the twilight phase, it sounds like he was happy that we at least lynched Squidy as well. I will be looking through the thread with that. At a cursory glance, both you and Ty4on seemed to favor lynching Squidy over Razmos so I'm well aware that I could be talking to scum in some area. That's fine, I'm going to be passing my words to all three of you and there are only 3 deaths tonight (if you count the day kill thing) so if I post everything in both threads, someone can pass along my ideas.
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Post by Sorian on Dec 4, 2015 17:52:23 GMT -8
Man, fuck us, hinting at that lost partner right in the open.This post made me think of something. Mazre knew what I was. If Setre is telling the truth, what would possibly convince them to target me? It still makes 0 sense. Mazre knew I would have had two other people in my chat and even if one was scum, the other would still be able to talk. If we assume they didn't convert Squidy then that just leaves a roleblocker. If their is no kill again tonight (that poor double kill) then it might be something to look into. In hindsight, it almost reads like him knocking a teammate. Just funny to me. Scrafty went in HARDCORE on Razmos from second one in the day. She isn't scum, it's as simple as that, there is 0 doubt in my mind. Razmos Read List. He only did top 3 in each category. I know I'm town and I know Scrafty is town so he chose two pretty obvious towns and the doctor claim, I'm not too worried about the doctor claim because that's a lie that will dissolve over time. Top scum was squidy, gryvan, and AB. Razmos thought Squidy was town from my point of view, AB is claiming ordinary to me but gut check says town, which just leaves gryvan. Would Razmos have mentioned a team member or just ignored them completely? Not sure. I've read Pop as scummy but this was way too early in the day to really start bussing and Pop left his vote here for the entire day phase. It could be brownie points but I doubt it. I can only assume that Squidy's plan from the start was to instigate Razmos as much as possible and hope to incite some type of PR reaction from him or even a kill if Razmos was really sloppy. If he ended up getting Razmos lynched, he probably figured that town would hail him as a hero for the rest of the game and assume scum was elsewhere. That's why he kept begging me for one more day, he knew if I saw Razmos' flip, I would back down going forward from lynching him. So happy we didn't get side tracked by Seath, even if Seath was scum, this could have been disastrous if Squidy had pulled it off. I town read Gryvan but this post was totally going to be a side track. It was so out there going after Coppa that I can't see gryvan being in a scum chat. They would have told him to go after a more realistic target. Whether Coppa is scum or not, gryvan was not going to start a lynch on him right then. Coppa did this a lot during the day so I won't quote him again unless I want to bring up another point. I think he is town because of him bringing up town's win condition on day 1 so he is mostly cleared for me anyway but his prodding everyone was a distraction away from the Razmos train starting, once it was in effect, whatever, all well and good, but it's something to point out. Not so secret favorite post
I don't think scum would have brought up Razmos right now. He was teetering on the brink and with two lynches, anything to forget about him would have been perfect for scum. He hadn't been mentioned for awhile at this point. Just absed on this post alone, I don't think Ferret is scum. Another funny post in retrospect. I think this was Squidy giving scum advice which kind of furthers my point that he wasn't recruited. Here is where I became deadly serious on Razmos. I'm not going to toot my horn too much but people who play with me know that I can become single tracked once I am sure of something. Scum might not have known I was sure of Razmos yet but I imagine once they realized it, the bus had to have started. It was a double lynch day, there was no way I wasn't going to be a main contributor to one of the lynches. This post is straight up protecting Razmos. I am copy/pasting this same post to both chats so Ty4on will see this. There is no other way to read this post so I'll let it sit out there. Another post that was only going to help Razmos. I think scum had always had it in their head to go after Squidy on this day, possibly because I suspected him so hard in gossip chat. Another knock on you Ty4on, I have to assume that scum wanted to bus Squidy and hope they could scrape together someone else to get more votes than Razmos. I mostly read Stanley as absentee town. This post kind of reinforces that. I think the Razmos bussing will start soon but this was just a simple reads list, not a vote. Stanley could have just not mentioned Razmos or not made a reads list at all and no one would have said anything except maybe Coppa but we were all focused on other things anyway. Here's a funny thought. This is a bus post. I only have one reason for thinking that though so if someone can answer me then go for it, I'm too lazy to go back through day 1 and day 2. How does Karu know that Razmos quit early in a past game due to RL? Did Razmos bring that up in this thread? It sticks out to me, please tell me if Razmos said it in thread because if so then this post could actually paint Karu as town to me. It's huge if Karu posted knowledge he gained from scum chat. At this point Razmos had 5 votes and most of the voters seemed dead set, on a double lynch day, the bussing would have to start by now, even if they could convince us to lynch Squidy, it would take great persuasion to save Razmos. For those that think Squidy did get recruited, Flush is a possible scum buddy. He tries multiple times to convince us to lynch Seath and let the 3P kill Squidy. The 3P is not guaranteed in anyway to listen to us, this could have been an attempt to save Squidy hope that the neutral would ignore my request. If Squidy had joined scum chat and explained his plan, Flush would have known that Squidy would have been on most town lists after Razmos died. This only works if you think Squidy got recruited. To be continued for now, going out to dinner!
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Post by Sorian on Dec 4, 2015 20:06:43 GMT -8
Seath was a distraction all day long but I don't think he really did anything stupid until I said that the neutral should kill him. He cares about self-preservation which is totally a scum tell but he is also not the best at all of this (no offense intended) so it's hard to have a real read on him because town or scum Seath would do the same thing. His distraction ahd no chance of saving Razmos though and all it did was inject himself as a lynch candidate instead of throwing suspicion elsewhere. So, I'm not really feeling it in all honesty. This was an odd post, I completely think TL21 is town but I offered no real logic on Squidy other than "guys, please trust me" I was actually confused on this point but it is important to keep in mind that Flush pushed the same thing as me. Scum may have clarified how this worked in scum chat and Flush may have pushed the incorrect version purposely. At this point, I think the Razmos bus would have been in affect so it makes sense from that perspective. Scum also probably wouldn't have been confused like I was seeing as how they had both Mazre and Razmos who are both vets from the AC game (which this game is heavily based off of from what I am seeing). Ty4on went up to bat A LOT for Razmos on day 3. This really can't be ignored the more you dig through it. Scum would have been pushing something by now either to save Razmos or bus him and get brownie points. Stanley sat on the fence which could be an inexperienced scum move but I feel like Razmos had to be doing a bit of coaching in scum chat. Squidy was cutting DEEP on Razmos, I highly doubt that he would bus a second teammate. So this kind of lends itself to a town read of Flush. On the other hand, he is kind of protecting Seath here, kind of interesting actually. Same idea as the Stanley link two above this one. I don't feel like scum would have been fence sitting today. It was double lynch day, they would have known by now that Razmos was a sure thing and it was going to be between Squidy or Seath barring other shenanigans. Razmos probably would have been pushing them to do something other than fence sitting. An interesting vote for Seath but I don't see it being useful for scum. Razmos had already thrown his vote on Squidy, they had to vote together to have a chance. But then gryvan immediately changes his vote to squidy anyway. So, yes, this could have been a moment to try to detract from Razmos, gryvan gives no reasoning though so there was no intent here to convince others. Someone else noticed that Ty4on has been going up to bat for Razmos even from day 1. I may end up doing another re-read of day 1 and day 2. Anyone trying to protect Razmos from mean old squidy regularly is suspect at this point. Could be a bus, the late Razmos votes need to be eyed suspiciously IMO. A good post in general, the vote didn't end up shaking out because of the theory but the theory is still on the table. I find it hard to believe that Mazre didn't set some type of trap for me even if I didn't fall for it. Does push Squidy though but seems far too late to save Razmos, scum should be bussing not going elsewhere at this point. Totally a bus post if Mike is scum, this just screams late to the party especially when Mike had been active earlier in the day. Also a bus post and rushing the bus too, Flush is 100% scum if we have a clue that Squidy was recruited. Flush goes up to bat a lot for Squidy in various ways. IF SOMEONE CAN SHOW ME THAT SQUIDY WAS RECRUITED THEN FLUSH NEEDS TO DIE. This post feels very pro-town though knowing all that we know right now. Too late to even be considered a bus vote at this point. Slowbro townie from this post. Razmos is dead at this point, scum can't do anything else for him and as far as I am concerned, they think they can kill a valuable townie in logical Squidy.
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Post by Sorian on Dec 4, 2015 20:25:39 GMT -8
Now as far as voting patterns go, I don't know how much their is to see. Razmos only ever voted for trigger and always kept his vote their on day 1 and 2. Would have cleared trigger if we let him live but that ship has sailed.
Squidy joke voted for Ferret on day one and then switched to Razmos where he kept it for the rest of the day. Squidy was obviously trying to incite retaliation from the scum team so he would get recruited. It is possible his joke vote was also meant to have this reaction, in which case Ferret is also scum. Something to think about. Squidy straight up didn't vote on day 2. Day 3 he voted and held to Razmos all day along. I congratulate him on his strat, he was going for high risk/high reward. This double lynch caused it to blow in his face though.
Squidy was the only person to ever vote for Razmos on day 1 and no one voted for Razmos on day 2.
So, not a lot to be seen from the vote record so far.
(Yes, this is what I am doing with my Friday night, I am so terribly exciting).
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Post by Sorian on Dec 4, 2015 20:37:06 GMT -8
So, after all of that, where do I, personally stand?
Leaning Town: Scrafty, Pop, Coppa, Stanley, Absolut
Leaning Scum: Ty4on, Karu (unless there is a place in the main thread where Razmos said he had to quit a prior game, I would need to see the post and he may be re-assigned to leaning town), Mike
Unsure: gryvan, Ferret, Flush (unless we see real evidence that Squidy did get recruited then Flush would be re-assigned to leaning scum), Seath
Anyone not listed really didn't do anything one way or the other on day 3 so I'm not worried about them for right now. I doubt scum just 100% sat on their hands when their godfather/wolf cub was the main point of contention.
I'm basically 100% on Scrafty, Pop, and Coppa being town. Stanley and Absolut are more iffy but probably.
I am basically 100% sure that the last 1-2 scum are in my leaning scum or unsure category and all of my reasoning can be dug out from my post analysis posts.
The two post analysis posts, the voting analysis post, and this post are all word-for-word in both Big Rico's and Jerry's Tacos. If I die, I expect Absolut to pass on as much of my thoughts as he can to the main thread. If Absolut dies as well then I leave it to UltraJay and then to Ty4on if Ultra dies, in that order. I'm not too concerned about these gossip chats at this point. We have scum on the ropes, this game could be over in one or two more day phases if we play our cards right.
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Post by Sorian on Dec 5, 2015 7:21:55 GMT -8
Ty4on found this gem for me so I now see Karu as leaning town. I was thinking on things and I know how I want tomorrow to go already. I'll detail my interests in a post later, don't have time right now but I think we have a very slid chance of winning this.
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Post by Retro on Dec 6, 2015 7:13:00 GMT -8
Night 4 will be extended by 24 hours, and will end at 11:00 AM Mountain Time on 12/8/15. Apologies for any inconvenience.
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Post by absolutbro on Dec 6, 2015 8:25:12 GMT -8
Night 4 will be extended by 24 hours, and will end at 11:00 AM Mountain Time on 12/8/15. Apologies for any inconvenience. Works for me! -------------------- Sorian : Not only was Razmos hinting at a Lost Partner, he was role fishing. Setre had already been semi-outed as Josie, so his post to me feels like he knew Josie didn't intervene. He is looking to get anyway else who has the ability to do so to come forward. As for tonight's kills, sadly I suspect it will be you and Setre. No one else has a known and still usable PR, and they may still think you are a cop. Keep in mind, Mazre may have thought you were lying about being a gossip. You claimed to be able to verify someone's role (something I inadvertently pushed. Normally with only 1 NK it's the WIFOM game of "who to target, who to protect". Two night kills means they don't have to play at all; they're guaranteed to get one of you. If your gossip has only town, they have no way to verify your claim. I wouldn't look to hard at people that defended Razmos day 1 or even day 2. Squidyj went in hard and that IME tends to garner a few defenders. It could just be Squidyj looking to be seen as an outspoken voice, since those tend to get targeted. And like you said he WANTED to be targeted. He knew Razmos was Scum and probably picked him from the others because they had history. UltraJay or Flush. I'm convinced one of them is a/the remaining scum. I struggle to imagine that the list isn't rigged, and I will be pushing both during today's day phase. You're right that he couldn't have known that Squidyj was Scum at that point, so someone else in that list should be. I wouldn't throw all my weight behind there only being 3 scum before Squidyj. He had no power and couldn't issue NKs until recruited. 3 scum + that seems kind of weak, especially with a SK that seems to have no issue killing scum. Had his partners in crime been found before he was recruited, there would be no more NKs from scum as far as I can tell. Flush wanting to turbo Razmos or Squidyj feels off to me. "This double kill is fragile" or whatever? I can't tell if Flush had any better idea of how the double vote worked. Seems like the thought was that when Squidyj was locked he would be revealed immediately. His flipping Scum might have convinced some people that Razmos was town and saved Razmos. If Flush did realize that votes would be "locked" on Squidyj, it gets even worse since it basically shows that Flush was trying to save Razmos at the expense of Squidyj. Which makes perfect sense, since Razmos is immune to alignment cops (which we presumably have out there somewhere). Funnily enough, after pushing him for awhile, I'm thinking Seath might be the cop. The flaky play, the "I want to live". I was a cop in DR and the hardest part is keeping scum from realizing it. It's better, imo, to keep right on the edge of town's shit list because that way scum may leave you alone. At least, that was my intention in DR. The "fight club" mechanic as Czar called it sort of threw a wrench in that. Still, I'm coming around on Seath. (now he's probably the last scum and I look stupid) Gryvan I'm still on the fence on. His post with the exact same list as Mazre's may be 100% coincidence, but in games like this I don't like coincidences. His votes have also been odd to me, much the same as you seem to think. He went No Lynch D1 after only voting for you. D2 was Coppa and D3 was Coppa at first before settling on Squidyj when I think it became clear he didn't really have a choice. If there's a scum outside Mazre's list, it's probably gryvan.
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Post by Sorian on Dec 6, 2015 8:48:58 GMT -8
Hmm, alright, so I'm going to share with you. So I think there is only one scum left maybe two which is why I'm going on this little expedition. Someone in my other chat is the neutral killer (not going to say which one but you already know the two people I have other there). He is allowed to kill two nights (they are night actions that get delayed to day kills) and then has to take a night off and then repeat. If he gets roleblocked then everything gets shifted so (night 1 kill, night 2 role block, night 3 is still a kill, and then night 4 would be the break). What this means for us is that no day kill will go out tomorrow. So why am I bothering to tell you? Well, I've agreed that I would like to help him with his win condition, he helped us and the rest of his win condition is still pro-town if he listens to us and I'm pretty sure he will. His win condition is either to kill 1 town and 2 scum OR 3 town and 1 scum. If we guide him right, he can kill his one scum during night 4 and wrap this all up pretty quickly for all of us. So what do we do during the day phase for tomorrow? Well,, apparently, we have this type of situation going on. There is someone out to lynch our neutral killer. As I've said I'm going to be throwing in our killer so I am actually going to attempt to lynch the lyncher tomorrow. It serves a couple purposes for me. It kills a neutral which is a free day and keeps townies alive and well. It also verifies this person's story because he gave quite the description about everything, if his lyncher is who he says it is (flavor wise) then I know I can trust them 100%. So I decided to research the thread and this was actually much easier. I'm about 95% sure that Unmasked Ferret is the neutral trying to lynch the killer. As such, I am going to be pushing a Ferret vote hard tomorrow. I want to see how he reacts, if he role claims neutral, and still eventually push for his flip so that I can have no doubts about this neutral. Only two people will die tomorrow so odds are that one person who is not the neutral from my chat will be alive to tell everyone that the person in my chat was lying. It also has the added benefit of, well if I am wrong about Ferret being the neutral, he is still pretty scummy and last time my plan failed we got fireworks anyway, I trust my read that Ferret is just a good all around choice.
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Post by absolutbro on Dec 6, 2015 9:10:31 GMT -8
Interesting. We have enough town left that I'm willing to go along with this bargain. I will probably still push Flush/Ultrajay for a little bit during the day phase, if only to see what shakes loose. Towards the end I'll either "be swayed" by one of your posts or I can put together my own case against Ferret and see where the group goes from there.
That's a pretty strange win condition given his role details though. He needs a minimum of three kills, which would take at least 4 day phases assuming perfect target selection of 1 town and 2 scum. As it is, he can pretty much win by day 5 if only by targeting town like Stanley or Karu who aren't doing all that much. I would appreciate if he targeted Flush or Ultrajay the next night. Worst case scenario whoever he targets is town and he's 1 low-activity kill away from victory anyway. Best case scenario Flush or Ultrajay (I leave the choice to them) is the last scum and the game ends. I tend to think that there are two scum left myself. A godfather/cub, a gossip and a Lost Partner seems like a weak team to me. Then again, I haven't really ever designed a game, so what do I know?
If it looks like the Lyncher is somehow turning the town against the SK, I'd be willing to take the hit for them. It shouldn't be too hard, considering the whole "Mazre was scum and I'm in his chat" angle that probably has half of town suspecting me anyway. I still win, alive or dead, if town wins.
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Post by Sorian on Dec 6, 2015 9:37:49 GMT -8
I'm sure sure how familiar you are with Night Vale stuff (I think you were listening to it but wasn't far along?) but his win condition makes a lot of sense from a fluff standpoint. His role name is Hiram McDaniels which is a five-headed dragon. The joke from the podcast is that his five heads never agree with each other so two of the heads want to kill town, two of the heads want to kill scum, and one of the heads just wants to not kill anyone (which is where the kill less night is coming from). Yes, I think this role was put in assuming that it would win at day 6 but I don't think Retro thought we would kill so much scum this early on. We have 3 scum down in 3 days, that is way faster than you would expect when balancing a game. Neutral SKs are also hard roles to win with and they are balanced like that purposely.
As for the scum team being weak, yeah, it depends on what the remaining scum roles are. A gossip is actually pretty strong on paper, if Mazre hadn't invited the other gossip night 1, he probably would have had a lot of townies in his pocket for awhile kind of like fran from AC (that was the mafia-aligned cop right?). The scum team has to be dialed back a bit with this SK though, SKs usually need to target town members from a balance standpoint so Retro would have had to tone mafia down a little bit to compensate for this. The SK does need to find at least one scum to win but that can be pretty hard to do, makes sense why he jumped on Mazre when he had the chace from reading my chat.
I wouldn't try to take the bullet for the SK or the lyncher. They are against each other, we can side with one or the other but at the end of the day, we are town. No reason to die on their battle, we can support the SK over the lyncher but no reason to inject ourselves in as a shield for either of them.
I am going to cross post something over here, I built a whole post detailing why Ferret is scummy. Now that I know your stance on all this, I figure I'll post it for you. Remember, if I die, I want these posts passed on to the main thread.
Keep in mind that I have a dual motive with lynching the lyncher (Ferret). Scum is probably reeling after that day 3 vote. If they see me going after someone who is not scum, they are going to jump in hard to support my choice. They need a few mislynches to get back on track and they are probably desperate to take any chance they can. I post my list above of who I think is leaning town, leaning scum, and unsure. If someone from the leaning scum or unsure category jumps on this Ferret lynch train early on and stays with me, I bet you anything that is our scum, something to keep in mind.
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Post by Sorian on Dec 6, 2015 9:39:23 GMT -8
So this post is an easy one to point back to. Knowing whether Kevin is in the game or not isn't really some huge advantage but now that we know Kevin is in the game, this was kind of a weird thing for Ferret to bother trying to correct Fireblend on. He took a hard line on not commenting on Squidy vs. Razmos (and Trigger), this neutrality stuck around for a lot of day 1. Was he worried about his teammate going earlya nd figured if he stayed neutral on the topic, it would die down? This reads list provides an interesting story if you just look at the Squidy/Razmos/Trigger triangle. He calls Squidy pro town, which, to the scum perspective, he was probably going to come off as the towniest town ever if Razmos ever got lynched (Mazre even set Squidy up as town too in his reads list). Then he null reads both Tazmos and Trigger but you'll notice that he says that he thinks Trigger has a higher chance of being the scum. I was skeptical of this post at the time and on a re-read, still makes red flags. I'm usually a pretty easy person for mafia to try and lynch. It never works out but it always looks good on paper since I do tend to act weird. This could have been the rumblings of trying to make me look guilty. Especially since at this point, mazre knew what I was and scum may have been trying to make me seem suspect before I said anything about Mazre. After this post, for a lot of day 2, Ferret posts a lot of good stuff but I think we had been knocking into him so much about only defending himself and not scum hunting that he decided to change his play style so that he would seem less suspicious. Of note is that he only goes after Pop, Setre, and Pop who I am all pretty sure are town so he didn't really do any favors. He also bandwagoned with me on every single vote at the end of day 2. He was jumping around a lot and it was probably because he didn't want an accidental tie, whoever died from the three of them was a fine choice. He didn't push this super hard but he kept bringing up the possibility of saying that I was the lost partner. I still find it odd because he didn't give the same push to Setre who has also claimed a female character. He also starts a rumbling at the end of this post that maybe Squidy is the scum and Razmos is the unsuspecting town. This was an interesting thing to say to Razmos since they have a secret chat to each other but I've been in a scum chat before, sometimes people just aren't looking at both thread simultaneously. If Ferret thought that Razmos wasn't looking at scum chat, he might have just snuck advice in here hoping that Razmos would see it. It wasn't bad advice so it wouldn't be scummy at the time. Again, kind of a fence post, he is starting to say that maybe Squidy is the bad one in all of this but we needs to go back and re-read today's stuff. Day 3 was rough for scum, Razmos almost seemed like a sure thing with two lynches but I'm sure scum still had to try. Squidy was going to be their first good person to push votes to and I think I see that in this post. Still fence sitting on Razmos but the crack is starting. Razmos is becoming a lost cause at this point. Here's where the bus had to start. He did a little back and forth with Squidy before this but I don't think he saw anything that was going to make saving Razmos a possibility so he is starting to throw Razmos under. He votes Razmos in his next post. I also see a lot of this interaction with Squidy (didn't post all links, they are all around this area) as him trying to get chummy with Squidy. Squidy was going to come out looking GREAT if he survived and Razmos died. Getting on Squidy's good side might have been a great place for scum to be. ---------- Pretty good case IMO. All of this is good to push votes onto Ferret. I have stuff on Ferret in my earlier double post as well. If I should die, please, please, use things from my double post for this whole Ferret experiment and for figuring out who real scum is and also this post for nailing down Ferret tomorrow.
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Post by Sorian on Dec 8, 2015 8:28:05 GMT -8
Just posting my last will just in case I die. Please refer back to my double post that I put in here about everything from day 3 and cross-reference it with whatever happens on day 4. Going into the night phase, I think you should be able to make an educated guess on who scum is. If I am dead, you have no way to communicate with the neutral but I'm sure you can find a way to hint to my other people in the thread if you are catching something that you think is important. Push Ferret hard today, if he role claims as Steve Carlsberg, then our neutral was telling me the truth and you should explain what is going on with the neutrals. Don't hint at who it could be but explain that our neutral is a night killer who chooses his kill at night and they die randomly during the next day. The neutral killer is Hiram McDaniels if people need flavor and his win condition is to kill 2 scum and 1 town or 3 town and 1 scum but after every two nights of killing, they have to take 1 night off. The neutral is set to kill who they think is scum during night 4 so we are asking to lynch the other neutral today to give our SK neutral time to work. If Hiram should miss and hit town during night 4, they are aware that we are going to be scum hunting on day 5 and it is possible that we may lynch a scum and end the game. I am going to cross post this over to Jerry's Tacos as well so everyone is on the same page in regards to my thoughts.
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