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Post by karkador on Aug 28, 2017 10:02:15 GMT -8
oh well it's turbo'd now anyway
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Post by xbro on Aug 28, 2017 10:06:21 GMT -8
We've got 24 hours to decide what we're going to do.
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Post by xbro on Aug 28, 2017 10:10:31 GMT -8
If we didn't go through with the no NK plan, how likely would we be to land a mislynch on CrimsonSophia? If we NK'd, majority would be 5 votes yeah? We've got 4 players, if Natiko throws a vote on them we can turbo it immediately.
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Post by karkador on Aug 28, 2017 10:18:35 GMT -8
FWIW, I think after seeing how much good will Sorian's double-roleblock of Ouro bought him, and commentary like "sorian and kark could not be on the same team", I think Sorian outing us is the best move that's gonna take them to the end.
The only problem is, it's a longer road.
1. [m] Muffin1611 & [f] Samuraischnecke [m] rac & [m] acohrs 3. [m] Fat4all [f] Sawneeks & [m] Sorian 4. [m] CrimsonFist & [f] Sophia 5. [m] TsuXna [f] hey_monkey & [m] Royal_Flush 7. [m] Xbro & [m] Karkador 10. [m] Natiko & [m] Nomadic Sparks
Six teams left. Assuming we get lynched tomorrow, Sorian and Sawneeks would NK another pair,
Then the next day is them two vs. 3 other pairs. 6 votes vs 2. Majority would be 5. It will take all three pairs thinking Sorian and Sawneeks are scum for town to win.
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Post by karkador on Aug 28, 2017 10:21:18 GMT -8
Another option is to roleblock us and we claim that scum did indeed pull their NK and is trying to frame us, because that was the already assumed play that Natiko broadcast. Huge WIFOM mess there, but we potentially get a mislynch out of it.
It would be 4 votes vs. 8, majority 7, so we would only need to convince 2 pairs out of 4 to mislynch and we turbo and win.
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Post by karkador on Aug 28, 2017 10:22:33 GMT -8
Our 4 votes vs their 8, but again, turbo is 7. It seems to me like an easier fight than Sorian/Sawneeks vs. 3 pairs.
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Post by karkador on Aug 28, 2017 10:23:14 GMT -8
but we'd have to be at the ready to turbo together
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Post by xbro on Aug 28, 2017 10:34:32 GMT -8
If we go for a roleblock bamboozle it'll have to be a bus. And the most likely scenario is Sawneeks getting bussed for our sake.
If we don't we may as well kill someone tonight and go for the win tomorrow. The majority of the people are going for CrimsonSophia so we'd have to coordinate and all of us jump on it the moment someone places a vote.
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Post by xbro on Aug 28, 2017 10:40:43 GMT -8
Problem is if we do a NK there's a very real chance that Sawrian will be lynched anyway. We would need to put all of our eggs on one vote being thrown in the wrong direction.
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Post by Sawneeks on Aug 28, 2017 11:10:56 GMT -8
I agree with Kark, we need to go for the bus bamboozle. Enough people have said if Sorian and I live to tomorrow we're the lynch target regardless ( only people who didn't commit to that are Monkey and Natiko ) so killing someone else just quickens the inevitable and doesn't help us blur our trail. If we skip the kill and come out to blame you guys we can at least get Townie Points to either one of our pairs depend on who dies or not. After that it's just causing one more mislynch ( which should be easy given Sophia/Crimson ) and then we win after another NK ( which should be Royal/Monkey if all works out).
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Post by Sawneeks on Aug 28, 2017 11:17:43 GMT -8
I'll be Ms. No-Fun-Allowed over here but I'm not one for turbo plans. If the rest of you agree to it I'll help out but it's not my first choice.
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Post by karkador on Aug 28, 2017 11:21:43 GMT -8
my concern is the # of votes we have. right now at turbo being 7, both of us being alive means we have most of the votes needed for majority. i think bussing needs to be last resort.
people will probably be aware that mafia could quickly vote to majority, so I foresee a lot of people refusing to vote until the end of the day.
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Post by karkador on Aug 28, 2017 11:23:51 GMT -8
if we do bus, i think we can't leave it to ambiguity. we need to decide who is taking the fall and who's being the hero. the lynch teetering on either of us probably means we wont come out of that stunt looking too towny.
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Post by xbro on Aug 28, 2017 11:30:01 GMT -8
We could have a mock debate in here to see.
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Post by xbro on Aug 28, 2017 11:40:31 GMT -8
Gotta please the spectators somehow.
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Post by karkador on Aug 28, 2017 11:42:46 GMT -8
so tomorrow i'm just gonna tell them i'm scum and they'll put me in cuffs and that will be that
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Post by karkador on Aug 28, 2017 11:43:39 GMT -8
good, yeah? alright
gooooooooo team
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Post by karkador on Aug 28, 2017 11:44:25 GMT -8
no but really, i'll wait for Sorian's take.
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Post by Sawneeks on Aug 28, 2017 11:55:16 GMT -8
The problem is, we either bus at the start of the Day Phase tomorrow or not at all. We can't go half-way with it. The fake roleblock strategy we have is probably the best bet here ( considering the alternative is kill someone else and hope Sorian and I survive another round of 'why did they die and not you?' and I don't think we make it out of that ) since it will cause a Thunderdome tomorrow where Town HAS to pick to lynch either one of us.
Look at it this way, from Town's perspective tomorrow they are going to have Sawrian the 'Town Hooker' claim to block Xbro/Kark and since there was no kill, that means that you two are Scum and we stopped you. So, Town now has to pick who they believe more; Sorian and I as Townies or you two as unfortunate Town victims of a Scum ploy who Scum!Sawrian are hoping to get lynched. Either way Town goes they will believe they picked correctly since Scum will be lynched and this will likely reinforce their Town read of whoever they didn't lynch.
We also can't pick which one of us makes it out and which one doesn't, unfortunately. It's all up to Town. Sorian and I will be hot out of the gate voting you two since we believe we 'stopped scum' and it's up to you two to go with your responses from there. Remember, you are TOWN and someone else just claimed that you are Scum and deserve to die, something that you know isn't true since you know you are Town and lynching you means Town losses.
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Post by Sawneeks on Aug 28, 2017 12:01:02 GMT -8
my concern is the # of votes we have. right now at turbo being 7, both of us being alive means we have most of the votes needed for majority. i think bussing needs to be last resort. people will probably be aware that mafia could quickly vote to majority, so I foresee a lot of people refusing to vote until the end of the day.Also, you are super correct about this. Gafia never votes early on MyLo/LyLo because of the fear of being wrong and Scum bussing off of that vote, so if you vote early on those days you have to be CONVINCED that person is Scum. Which kinda plays into worrying over how many votes we have - I don't think it matters at this point. Votes come in at Day End anyway so it's all down to the arguments leading up to that, sure we could Turbo one wrong vote but that's hoping someone on Town is foolish enough to do that and considering everyone is a Veteran at this point I doubt that's going to happen.
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Post by xbro on Aug 28, 2017 12:02:20 GMT -8
Natiko is 100% sure CrimsonSophia is scum.
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Post by Sawneeks on Aug 28, 2017 12:07:52 GMT -8
Sure, but how much are we willing to gamble on him voting for them early? He was so paranoid he wanted to No Lynch a Day Phase before MyLo and got mad at me for voting early that Day. He's a smart guy trapped in the world's deepest tunnel and I don't think he'd be up for voting early just because of that.
The alternative here is if we DO kill and hope Natiko votes for them and he ends up not....Sorian and I are just RIP since everyone else wants our head, with you two not having any extra Townie Points. I also feel if we killed someone and it wasn't Natiko, he'd get suspicious as to why his 'Top Scum Read' didn't murder him and he may back off.
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Post by Sawneeks on Aug 28, 2017 12:08:53 GMT -8
Also, we may be able to Turbo off his vote anyway if Sorian's earlier comment is correct.
Natiko might be SO far in his tunnel that us throwing you two under the bus might just make him believe it's a plot to save Sophia/Crimson and may still vote there anyway.
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Post by xbro on Aug 28, 2017 12:15:59 GMT -8
...Lmao let's see how that goes. I'm down for the plan. I just think the best case scenario would be ending it with this upcoming day.
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Post by Sorian on Aug 28, 2017 12:26:29 GMT -8
I mean it's not really a hard sell and we don't really need think ahead of time who is getting bussed and who isn't, let the thread figure that out.
Take it from the perspective that Saw and I are town. We go into this night phase blocking Kark and Xbro, we wake up to find no one dead. Saw and I vote for who we blocked and report that block to the thread. They now have to choose between believing us and voting you two or thinking we are scum pulling for the final mislynch which really should just always lead to us being voted out but Natiko is so deep into tunnel territory, he might still pull for Crimson and Sophia regardless.
Now take it from the perspective that you two are town, you wake up and see a no kill. Sorian and Sawneeks pretty early in the day get aggressive on you saying that they blocked you and no one died so thus you must be scum. In this situation, you KNOW you aren't scum, so what are your first thoughts. You either accuse Sawrian of being scum trying to frame you or accuse a nameless scum of trying to frame you both by making no kill and letting the roleblockers lynch the target. The issue with the second which was discussed in thread today is that is a huge gamble. In a world where Saw and I are town, scum doing no kill means they are holding faith in either being able to lynch us 100% or hoping we don't block them because then it's a moot point anyway. So really, anyone worth their salt is going to assume the first bit, that Saw and I are trying to frame you.
That's why there is no need to figure out who is bussing who. From each of our perspectives, there is only one way we can vote. Saw and I found the killer, we have to vote for them. Kark and Xbro are town and are being framed, they have to vote for the person framing them. The rest of the players have to make choices from there, some will even try to expand out into crazier theories where we are both town somehow, that;s fine, let them, from our perspectives, it doesn't make sense to believe the other side is town.
As far as turboing things go, I'm not up for setting up a plan that revolves completely around that with needing to get all 4 of us scheduled together but if the opportunity to do it is there, no reason not to take it.
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Post by Sorian on Aug 28, 2017 12:31:44 GMT -8
The issue is with as tunnely as Natiko is, he knows that tomorrow is lylo. Roleblockers surviving AGAIN with no block is too suspicious. He might start by tunneling Sophia and Crimson again but hes smarter than to just throw a vote down immediately without actual hard PR evidence. And given time to think, would he really bet so much on his gut when the person with higher odds of being scum is sitting right there? That said, sure, we actually got a lot believing that you and I could never be partners which surprised me, even if they lynch us tomorrow, they likely just go straight to Crimson the following day.
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Post by Sorian on Aug 28, 2017 12:39:02 GMT -8
The other thing to consider that makes this bamboozle plan a bit harder is what happens after the fact.
If we succeed in killing you then it's easier because we should we have the good will from finding scum and with only 4 targets left and some deduction, it wouldn't be hard to chain into a second block from most people's perspective.
The issue is more if two live. That brings us to a night phase of 4 v 1. You make a kill and go into a day of 3 v 1. They would be allowed to no lynch again which they could theoretically do with us but why bother if our PR is outing scum. If they do no lynch, they force you into another NK to bring it to 2 v 1. The issue with all those NKs is that Natiko voting on Crimson sounds like a sure thing now but that becomes suspicious down the road. If you try to set it up where the final 3 is you, Natiko, and Crimson then I think you'd lose. Natiko would have to wonder why a scum Crimson didn't take any of those opportunities to kill him when he was clearly tunneling so hard.
If we do this whole bamboozle thing, I think you should be trying to groom it so that the final 3 is flush, Kark, and Crimson. hey_monkey hasn't been as tunnely but has agreed with Natiko on many occasions and would adopt his reads once he is confirmed town without being as overtly tunnel centric about it.
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Post by Sorian on Aug 28, 2017 12:43:50 GMT -8
I'll admit, I really wasn't expecting them to go so hard into the Sawrian/XKark can't be scum together idea. It almost makes me want to just play normal, take the hit tomorrow with small chance that Natiko tries to spin it to Sophia and Crimson anyway and then just let them devour those two alive the falling day if they flip us scum instead.
We could kill rac tonight and Natiko the following night so that monkey plays into his reads and does the heavy lifting on Crimson and Sophia.
There are pros and cons to all of these plans.
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Post by xbro on Aug 28, 2017 13:05:50 GMT -8
That's actually the biggest glimmer of hope I have to the NK plan. Even if one of us gets lynched there is still a possibility that they think we aren't scum together. However the chance of it working is still small enough that it's a huge risk. And opinions shared today may or may not be the same as the opinions of the future. It does help that you deliberately told everyone that you and Saw were chatting on Day 2.
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Post by Sorian on Aug 28, 2017 13:10:42 GMT -8
Flush is actually the wild card I'm worried about. Monkey seems pretty set but Flush hasn't said much if anything lately.
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