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Post by yn on Feb 3, 2017 22:29:40 GMT -8
smol but nasties
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this is place to discuss how to best play with the hoomans and prepare them for great feast of aliens' tummies
your roles:
2x Mafia Goons (Crab and CzarTim)
1x Mafia Roleblocker(squidyj)
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Post by CzarTim on Feb 5, 2017 2:06:22 GMT -8
Hey guys.
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Post by CzarTim on Feb 5, 2017 2:14:36 GMT -8
So we either had two or three Ts looking at the setup.
I haven't played this setup before fyi
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Crab
Vice Admin
Glorious Leader
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Post by Crab on Feb 5, 2017 4:47:45 GMT -8
Okay, so, C9++.
We have 2x Goon and 1x Roleblocker. That means town rolled T either 3 or 4 times. If they rolled T 3 times, there will be a Serial Killer, otherwise not. Given town rolled T either 3 or 4 times, there are 105 possible combinations of roles available to them, which doesn't help us much.
There being an Innocent Child would be useful information, cuts the roles down, but we can discuss that later.
In terms of our claims:
If they have a single M, the Innocent Child will be declared, everyone will know there are no more Masons, and we can't claim Mason. If they have MM or MMM, all town Masons will be in a single group. If we counterclaimed Mason, that requires at least two of us, and even if we tricked them into lynching one town Mason, they would then be able to lynch two Mafia in return. Very unlikely to be a good option. If they have MMMM, there are two separate town Mason groups, which means we could get two of them lynched, one from each group, which is fine... but MMMM is 0.08% likely at this point, so no point strategizing for it.
If they have a single V or VVV, we can't claim one-shot vigilante. There is only ever one one-shot vigilante present, and if you counter-claim, the real one can just shoot you. If they have no V, VV, or VVVV, it's a safe claim, but it would take us some time to work this out - three kills at least twice guarantees this, because SK, us, and a multiple-shot vigilante are required for that. But with two three-kill nights and two lynches, you're basically in LYLO already. So I don't think one-shot Vig is a good claim.
Similarly, VVVV is very unlikley (0.08%), so town will probably assume there is at most a single multiple-shot vigilante. If we claim multiple-shot vigilante, and there's a real one, they will in all odds just shoot us. So if we claim multiple-shot vigilante, that doesn't work out for us in VVVV, VVV, or VV. Works in V... except if a SK exists, they almost always claim multiple-shot Vig for obvious reasons, so we end up clashing with SK and that is to our detriment. In general, I don't like the odds of claiming multiple-shot Vig.
So those I want to rule out.
What claims are probably good:
One-shot Cop. If they have no C, this is an entirely safe claim. If they have C or CCC, then there is a real one-shot cop who will out and try to take you down, but this just leads to cop battle, which is great for scum since even if we lose we have the one-shot to target and we've established they're one-shot anyway. If they have CCCC we're probably just fucked tbh, but again, very unlikely. If CC happens, this is a safe-claim, but does mean we have a cop wandering around we can't expose.
Multiple-shot Cop. If they have no C or C, this is a safe-claim - a little risky if they have a single C, because the setup would need to be CCC for our claim to be real, but that just outs their single-shot for cop battle. If they have CC, they will know CCCC is unlikely, and probably have cop battle, and if CCC, one definitely has to be lying, and so we force cop battle again. Worst case is CCCD, we force cop-battle, one-shot outs, doc protects them, and then they can follow the Cop to victory, but CCCC and CCCD are basically auto-losses and we just have to hope they didn't come up. But yeah, I really like multiple-shot Cop as a claim, very good one to make, strong aggressive play.
Doctor. As above, claiming one-shot Doctor probably forces a Doctor battle in the same manner. Getting rid of Doctors is also good, so... yeah, good claim to make. No real downside. Worst case scenario is CCDD and we claimed one-shot, forcing out the one-shot doctor, cop claims to sort everything out, and multiple-doc plays Follow the Cop, but very unlikely.
Blocker. Pretty safe claim for a Roleblocker. Note that the chance town has no blocker is 47%, whereas the chance scum has no blocker is much lower, about 21%, so blocker claims always tend to meet a fair bit of distrust. If we do get blocker counter-claiming, that's not especially good for us - town RB is a worse doctor in this setup, insofar as if we just lost our RB in the RB battle, all they do to us is stop a kill but sometimes stop cop or doc or vig if they stray, and we lose our only PR. I don't mind scum blockers hiding as town blockers, but generally I find that scum blockers do better to pretend to be vanilla town.
Broadly, I think the best strategy will probably look something like: one of our Goons softs Cop, the other softs Doc, at least one of them will have to be claiming one-shot to make the roles add up and to explain why Follow the Cop isn't working, and the Blocker just hides in vanilla.
That's my thoughts so far.
In terms of kills, I don't have any early preference. To be honest, looking at the player list, you two were the ones I'd be looking to kill first.
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Post by CzarTim on Feb 5, 2017 7:01:01 GMT -8
I feel like you'd sell the cop better than me, so I'd rather take doc if we go that route.
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Post by squidyj on Feb 6, 2017 13:09:02 GMT -8
I'm not sure softing in day 1 is helpful. would be nice to find out if we have an SK or not. I got some different numbers than you Crab. So we assume that we rolled some number of Ts either 3 or 4. This leaves 3 or 4 results that are guaranteed to be one of C/D/V/M/B Since this is equal for any distribution of Ts we only need to consider the distribution of non T results. (65 - 51 + 1) / 50 = P(C) = 0.3 (75 - 66 + 1) / 50 = P(D) = 0.2 (85 - 76 + 1) / 50 = P(V) = 0.2 (95 - 86 + 1) / 50 = P(M) = 0.2 (100 - 96 + 1) / 50 = P(B) = 0.1
P(T = 3) = P(T = 4) = 35/128
P(C >= 1) = (1 - 0.7^3 + 1 - 0.7^4) * 0.5 = 0.73
P(D >= 1) = (1 - 0.8^3 + 1 - 0.8^4) * 0.5 = 0.54
P(B >= 1) = (1 - 0.9^3 + 1 - 0.9^4) * 0.5 = 0.31
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Post by squidyj on Feb 6, 2017 13:11:22 GMT -8
Oh wait nevermind, I was misreading your post. You were speaking of the general probability.
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Post by squidyj on Feb 6, 2017 13:18:03 GMT -8
Given what we know. I feel like my claiming town blocker would be incredibly bad. 1. It is not trustworthy unless T >= 5 which is low probability 2. It Requires B to be rolled which is unlikely in a T >= 5 game 3. Our other fake claims benefit from implying a lower T score with more town PRs
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Post by squidyj on Feb 6, 2017 14:10:09 GMT -8
Okay so I don't think it's productive to assume that we have MMM, it's like 2% on 4 T So we have TTTM??? or TTTTM??
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Post by CzarTim on Feb 6, 2017 14:10:36 GMT -8
So innocent child of course goes to an easy mislynch.
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Post by CzarTim on Feb 7, 2017 2:40:18 GMT -8
zzz
I want to kill Karl
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Post by CzarTim on Feb 7, 2017 2:45:20 GMT -8
Wondering if Oreo is being scummy to hide a pr though
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Post by CzarTim on Feb 7, 2017 3:15:18 GMT -8
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Post by CzarTim on Feb 7, 2017 10:03:00 GMT -8
yn will you talk to me, it's lonely in here
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Crab
Vice Admin
Glorious Leader
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Post by Crab on Feb 7, 2017 11:27:33 GMT -8
I agree that it would be a bad idea to try and hide as a town roleblocker, knowing there are relatively few town PRs and one is an Innocent Child.
I think the question we have now is: do we bother testing for a doctor or not? Innocent Child is surely the obvious choice for a doctor, even if there's some WIFOM involved there, and we do want the Innocent Child gone as quickly as possible - if we had VVVM(SK), you'd be surprised how quickly we reach LYLO.
In terms of town PRs, I also suspect Ouru. Nobody else leaps out at me at the moment, except possibly Gorlak. He was incredibly defensive and in a manner not in line with his prior play. Given we know he isn't scum...
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Post by CzarTim on Feb 7, 2017 11:30:21 GMT -8
If the ic was anyone but ccs I might be game, but I don't think he's worth the risk tbh
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Crab
Vice Admin
Glorious Leader
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Post by Crab on Feb 7, 2017 11:35:30 GMT -8
It's not just killing CCS, per se, it's testing the set-up for information. It is a risk... but probably not as much of one as you might think. There's a 50% probability of SK and an approximately 50% chance of Vig for a 87.5% chance another kill gets fired off tonight regardless.
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Post by CzarTim on Feb 7, 2017 11:51:11 GMT -8
Good point, I'm up for it if squid is.
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Post by yn on Feb 7, 2017 13:33:21 GMT -8
yn will you talk to me, it's lonely in here *hours later* hi tim! (timezone is evil ;___;)
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Crab
Vice Admin
Glorious Leader
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Post by Crab on Feb 7, 2017 14:06:39 GMT -8
yn will you talk to me, it's lonely in here *hours later* hi tim! (timezone is evil ;___;) VOTE: Timezone
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Post by squidyj on Feb 7, 2017 15:15:43 GMT -8
I agree that it would be a bad idea to try and hide as a town roleblocker, knowing there are relatively few town PRs and one is an Innocent Child. I think the question we have now is: do we bother testing for a doctor or not? Innocent Child is surely the obvious choice for a doctor, even if there's some WIFOM involved there, and we do want the Innocent Child gone as quickly as possible - if we had VVVM(SK), you'd be surprised how quickly we reach LYLO. In terms of town PRs, I also suspect Ouru. Nobody else leaps out at me at the moment, except possibly Gorlak. He was incredibly defensive and in a manner not in line with his prior play. Given we know he isn't scum... We can miss 1 night kill without changing the mislynch math in a 4T game but I'm not convinced that targetting CCS n1 is a good idea. If we have an SK we could more easily wind up double stacking and losing not only the kill but information about the game as well.
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Post by squidyj on Feb 7, 2017 19:17:59 GMT -8
LP is representing a PR right now? lul.
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Post by squidyj on Feb 7, 2017 23:23:22 GMT -8
it feels like Ouro is trying too hard at being stupid.
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Post by squidyj on Feb 7, 2017 23:28:35 GMT -8
How do you think the rest of town would react to us killing him in the night? He's pushing this LP and Timeaisis conspiracy theory pretty hard, and if he's just doing it to try to throw us off wouldn't it be great if he never got the chance to correct his position?
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Post by CzarTim on Feb 8, 2017 3:29:43 GMT -8
If he's a pr I'd rather him gone even if it means no easy Lynch tomorrow.
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Crab
Vice Admin
Glorious Leader
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Post by Crab on Feb 8, 2017 11:37:21 GMT -8
ouro needs to die
all my crabsenses are tingling
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Post by CzarTim on Feb 8, 2017 11:38:34 GMT -8
yup
I'll do it since I've been relatively clean today
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Crab
Vice Admin
Glorious Leader
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Post by Crab on Feb 8, 2017 12:42:45 GMT -8
Im not convinced it's worth bussing me - you can get 3 kills a night in these games, it's usually better playing conservatively until you can be confident enough to take risks like killing off a third of scum team. On the other hand, you've sort of painted yourself into a corner. You've been after me so aggressively might be difficult to find a climb-down. Not sure we played that especially well.
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Post by CzarTim on Feb 8, 2017 12:49:01 GMT -8
I would be seriously surprised if you ended up getting voted out. I am going to switch back to lp here in a minute.
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Crab
Vice Admin
Glorious Leader
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Post by Crab on Feb 8, 2017 12:52:27 GMT -8
dn't switch. it'll look too bad.
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