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Post by Sawneeks on Aug 31, 2016 20:12:40 GMT -8
also why did you vote kalor?
i might have missed you explaining it. if so, my bad. :c
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Post by kyanrute on Sept 1, 2016 0:44:24 GMT -8
I think the items have been rather fitting so far in terms of the abilities they've granted. It is not obvious what the items do, but the ability fits the item at least somewhat. The connection just might be tad absurd. Xbox: masons - chat via xbox live. Laptop: role cop - I dunno what the fluff is, check the players up on facebook or something? BBQ: arsonist does fit the bill but the role would need to be unorthodox because I can't see neutral roles being handed out like this. Kitchen appliances: vigi - death by a frying pan. Smartphone: techonology so more cop things? smartphones can be tracked so a tracker? private message to a person of choosing? Vacation: commuter would be a fair guess imo since vacation = going away.
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Post by kyanrute on Sept 1, 2016 0:45:30 GMT -8
fuck yeah : ( why on earth do three question marks turn into something like that lol
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Post by kyanrute on Sept 1, 2016 3:02:45 GMT -8
I did say a bit about the kalor vote, but it was about picking between Oceanic and him. Oceanic revealed himself and you. Why would he do that as scum? Revealing himself puts him at risk and there was very little reason to do all that to force me out. Oceanic knew you were a mason, if he is scum and had scum wanted to disable the mason pair, they could've just killed you and left town in the dark. Oceanic felt more town than kalor.
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Post by kyanrute on Sept 1, 2016 4:45:54 GMT -8
Your idea of scum hitting low information flips seems plausible. Scum seem to want to keep people with attention on them alive, to serve as mislynches during the day phase. All the lynches so far fit this idea and I don't see any reason why scum would deviate from this. It is not a bad strategy in general. If they do deviate from it, it could be theorized that they know something extra that we do not, perhaps information gained via prizes they've won or something.
Who is then a possible lynch candidate? You and I. Oceanic is a candidate too, as long as he is alive. I'd put Kark here too, just because of the way he's been tunneling. If you flip town, Kark and I will get votes on the following phase if we are both alive.
The others I do not feel so certain about. If El Topo dies, scum might be looking for items. The BBQ thing was strange. Salva is a possible lynch too, Splinter's tunneling earned him major #townpoints and he should be at least somewhat trusted until endgame. Lynching either one of these two could be a reactionary play.
I'm thinking Star, nin, stanley, Christina and Corn. I exclude melon because she's been somewhat active in posting and accusing what separates her from the rest of the kills so far. She does not fit the MO I feel. I say no to Star because of her vote record: all on winning non-scum targets. If she survives, it should be brought up. Nin's change in activity could be a sign of item win or it could be scum nin who was forced out of retirement now that the herd is thinned. A narrative can be spun there too, I don't think he is the kill either. Stanley has been on the background for most parts, he fits the bill.
There is an interesting detail in the vote record regarding Corn and Christina: they voted together for three days in a row and only broke up last day. It is a very daring thing for scum to do so I don't think they both are scum. Instead, perhaps one of them is and the other is looking to attach themselves to the other to protect themselves and incriminate the other. But if I can figure this out, wouldn't scum see it too? Their votes too look very suspicious. Neither of them does explain themselves that much. Killing the attachment brings attention to the other.
Stanley, 10€. How does this even work? Is loss the presumed outcome of the bet and you must guess correctly to avoid the loss?
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Post by Sawneeks on Sept 1, 2016 13:05:23 GMT -8
The three question marks turned into a smiley looking thing, right? You should be able to turn that off in the settings somewhere.
I'm going to guess and say some sort of protection or bulletproof item will be given out at some point. Doesn't really fit the BBQ or Smartphone but maybe for the vacation? Vacation could also be an instant win item where the winner gets to leave the game and 'win' by going on a vacation. Although the commuter sounds like a plausible idea as well.
For Corn and CM do you think that each 'bid' phase has at least one Scum in it? Out of the first 4 bidders they are the only two left and none of them really scream 'Scum' to me. CM felt more Town than Kalor did because they would scum hunt every now and again and generally explained their thoughts. CornBro is the gray area as he has been somewhat quiet but he did continuously call out Splinter for 'bussing his teammate dragonz' which I always found odd since he would also vote for Dragonz in the end. I don't know, out of the 2 I think it could be Corn but I generally don't Scuvm read either of them. What do you think? If one of them was scum would you bet on corn or CM?
It's a vote on who dies. I voted $10 on Nin because I think he is the target for the Night. So if he dies, I win the bet. If you guess wrong you simply don't win anything, although we can start going negatives you want lol.
Fake Edit: I was typing this up before the Day started and saw the flip has been posted. Guess that answers the BBQ and melon questions.
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Post by Sawneeks on Sept 1, 2016 13:10:03 GMT -8
I can't find anything that would hint at Melon owning the BBQ.
Scum have the smartphone? An Item Cop in this kind of game makes a lot of sense.
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Post by Sawneeks on Sept 1, 2016 15:20:26 GMT -8
man i just can't guess anything right this game
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Post by kyanrute on Sept 2, 2016 10:56:25 GMT -8
My guess would be that the contestants are picked randomly. The one restriction we know is that only one prize can be won per person. The problem with all random is that town have the advantage thanks to their numbers. Here is where the restriction comes in play. Town populate the contestant's row, town win items, new contestants are rolled, town has a smaller chance of being picked up. More prizes town win, more likely scum are to win in the future. It is just a guess though, because I feel that it still favors town too much, if everyone is a ordinary. But the alternative, that town and scum have n secure places in the contestant's row, is not good either. It just backfires on scum, if town goes for a mass claim. The advantage scum would get by being able to participate in each prize bid would be completely gone if they couldn't hide. It would be so easy to make connections, because scum teams are not very large. It'll be interesting to see how it actually works once the game ends.
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Post by Sawneeks on Sept 2, 2016 11:16:59 GMT -8
So with all these shenanigans today who do you think is Scum?
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Post by kyanrute on Sept 2, 2016 11:19:24 GMT -8
Corn vs CM is a tough one. Both have flown under the radar for me and I guess for everyone, looking at the votes at least. Neither has been that much of a discussion point nor have they been pressured that much. I'd pick Corn too, mainly because CM has been more beneficial to the discussion overall I feel.
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Post by kyanrute on Sept 2, 2016 11:32:50 GMT -8
scum, me obviously.
i even have a vote on me!
interesting.
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Post by Sawneeks on Sept 2, 2016 11:35:29 GMT -8
Hahaha
A joke doesn't get you out of the question. :p
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Post by Sawneeks on Sept 2, 2016 11:35:57 GMT -8
and by question i meant 'who you think is scum'
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Post by kyanrute on Sept 2, 2016 11:37:18 GMT -8
a certain vote gave me much to process again, give me a bit
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Post by Sawneeks on Sept 2, 2016 11:37:53 GMT -8
No worries, take your time. n_n
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Post by kyanrute on Sept 2, 2016 11:39:01 GMT -8
perhaps you can help me along and explain the vote a bit so i can assess how seriously i should consider certain possibilities
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Post by Sawneeks on Sept 2, 2016 11:39:56 GMT -8
Well that would ruin the surprise now, wouldn't it?
c:
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Post by Sawneeks on Sept 2, 2016 11:41:39 GMT -8
Let me put it this way, I don't know if I will keep the vote there or not.
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Post by kyanrute on Sept 2, 2016 11:46:22 GMT -8
hmm then there is no point thinking further than that concluding that star needs to be confirmed.
back to thinking what is the best way to do it.
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Post by Sawneeks on Sept 2, 2016 11:50:01 GMT -8
So you just think Star is Scum?
hmmm
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Post by Sawneeks on Sept 2, 2016 11:51:27 GMT -8
and you just have one vote, why are you being so defensive?
this vote has little to do with anything you have done, it's more about the others.
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Post by kyanrute on Sept 2, 2016 11:55:13 GMT -8
I do not think I've said that I think Star is scum. Defensive, well, sudden changes in behavior can bait out reactions.
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Post by Sawneeks on Sept 2, 2016 11:56:15 GMT -8
So who do you think is Scum, then? Pre-vote and post-vote if you want to do that.
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Post by kyanrute on Sept 2, 2016 12:01:29 GMT -8
You seem very attached to this question. Why the haste, I wonder.
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Post by Sawneeks on Sept 2, 2016 12:02:39 GMT -8
Why the hesitation to answer it? :p
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Post by kyanrute on Sept 2, 2016 12:04:37 GMT -8
I have a rebellious nature. Perhaps I shall not answer, just to see what happens.
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Post by Sawneeks on Sept 2, 2016 12:05:25 GMT -8
Hahaha, well I can't really force you to answer it.
Although your reaction has been very interesting.
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Post by Sawneeks on Sept 2, 2016 12:08:15 GMT -8
Give it time, Kyan. I will explained the vote, I'm just waiting. c:
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Post by kyanrute on Sept 2, 2016 12:09:49 GMT -8
Waiting, that I am good at. We have a deal.
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