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Post by miketruk303 on Aug 10, 2017 13:23:21 GMT -8
I missed day end due to having to fill out a checklist for our new apartment, whoops. Thankfully people were sensible and lynched kit over Sorian. Kit did turn out to be scum as well, so that's great news. Need to do a look over of the voting for the last couple days though to verify what info this gains us. WAMD is very likely town. Ty may be as well, pretty sure he's pushed this lynch multiple times. Need to re-evaluate from the top down. Feel super sketchy on Ouro at this point, he's either scum or just playing really bad this game. I would probably start there D3 at this point. I think there's a decent chance we live, guessing WAMD dies tonight. When you get that done, give me some things to look for
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Post by natiko on Aug 10, 2017 20:12:24 GMT -8
Analysis D1 and D2:
1. [m] Muffin1611 & [f] Samuraischnecke Very little vote movement both days. D1 votes Kark as a team. D2 muffin votes Ouro, then Darryl and Samurai joins on Darryl. Muffin is the main contributor of the team, lists Darryl, Fran, Ouro, and Kit as potential scum in that order. I find them a bit null. If Darryl, Fran, or Ouro flip scum I'd say there's no way this team is scum. Wouldn't really pursue this path currently.
3. [f] Sawneeks & [m] Sorian Sorian was one of the first people to pressure kit D1 with voting. He also voted Ouro and Darryl (and Orb and Kark). D2 Sorian votes all over again (kit, Ouro, Darryl, Fran, Star) and Saw adds in Kark as well. Sorian is again strongly pushing on kit. Now, to be fair, Sorian has been known to bus his scummates from what I've heard. That being said when we were neutrals in Arkham he actually had my back a majority of the time and didn't throw me under the bus. He also is stirring up a lot of shit for the scum team in all likelihood as we know kit was scum and I'm of a mind to think at least one of the other pairs Sorian has gone in on are scum as well. Pretty big town read here, wouldn't consider a lynch here.
4. [m] CrimsonFist & [f] Sophia D1 Crim votes Orb to break a tie, shows no real interest in the lynch. Sophia doesn't vote. D2 they both vote for kit in the middle of the pack. Crim also votes Darryl very early. Could see this being a bus of kit, but with them doing it somewhat early and Crim being away and Sophia not bothering to switch to Sorian when she could have to flip the lead to him..eh. Null. Plus I don't want to believe they're scum because angry face.
5. [f] hey_monkey & [m] Royal_Flush D1 Royal does nothing. Votes Kark. D2 Royal does more (goes at Vere and Ty some). Pops in at the end and flounders a bit, throws some shade at kit/fep but then votes Sorian. Leaning towards scum still on this one. Monkey will come in tomorrow with a blitzkrieg and post a LOT and try hard. Need to be wary to not let the fresh, loud perspective overshadow Royal's potential scumminess.
6. [m] franconp & [m] Dr. Worm D1 Worm spreads joke votes around before ultimately landing on Orb (a very early vote on Orb comparatively). Fran votes us. D2 Fran/Worm (mainly Fran) get into a big throwdown with kit. Fran is a very early vote on kit and slams her. Worm does not end with a vote. No way this is scum/scum. Could see them or WAMD/Vere biting it tonight due to the interactions with kit seemingly clearing them at least for now. Would not lynch here.
7. [m] Xbro & [m] Karkador D1 bro votes Orb defensively at the end and before that Darryl. Kark votes Ty. D2 Kark votes Ty some more, bro votes kit...but with the last vote on her before EOD. Prime bussing time. Came into D2 feeling they were likely town due to not a ton of real movement at D1 end...but that being said, if Ouro flips scum I would hop back onto Kark being scum at a much quicker pace. Null with a potential scum lean based on Ouro flipping scum.
8. [m] Trigger & [m] Ty4on D1 Ty votes Kark and Kit a couple times, settling on Kit. Worth noting when he lands the vote there he leaves it open for anyone to persuade him to change "I see some town leaning them." D2 Ty votes kit first before all else, Trigger votes closer to the end. No wavering here, makes them take a big swing towards town instead of scum. Wouldn't call it a lock (could be Ty doubling down on where he ended D1 not realizing that it would spiral into a big thing with Trigger only joining late once kit's fate was sealed). Still, going to let this thread go for the forseeable future. Town lean.
11. [m] Verelios & [f] WhereAreMahDragonz D1 vote on Orb (big ass argument with WAMD and kit though). D2 WAMD parks on kit early, Vere votes Sorian late. The Vere vote gives me pause, but it's entirely possible that it was town jitters wondering if the kit push was being backed by scum. Lean town, but I'd second guess this lean before I would, say, Fran, Ty, or likely even Sorian.
12. [m] Ourobolus & [m] kingkitty D1 both land on Orb. Ouro also votes earlier on Kark and Sophia. Kitty had also voted Sophia earlier. D2 Ouro votes Fran, Darryl, and Sorian. Tries pretty hard to argue against a kit lynch. Kitty votes on Kark by his lonesome. One could argue the connection between Ouro and kit is 'too easy' for it to be scum, but with how worthless Ouro has been and with kitty making a minimal impact I could definitely see this being my primary target for a lynch D3. There's just enough of a concern here and the potential information gained could be pretty significant. I would say this is the best bet to find scum and could lead to more scum potentially.
14. [f] StarSketch & [m] CzarTim Who? D1 votes..no one. D2 votes Ouro at the last moment when there's no risk of him being lynched and no chance of saving kits. Could definitely see there being scum here. It's an easy lynch in that no one is going to go to bat for star for the most part. If Ouro flipped town (which would make me think Kark is less likely to be scum as well, but would potentially bump Royal up some I could see Star being the third scum very easily). Would let die but probably wouldn't lead the lynch D3.
15. [-] Darryl & [m] nin1000 D1 Darryl votes Sorian early, then Kark, then quickly flips to kit and sits near day end (nin does jack all). D2 Darryl votes on muffin then swaps to Sorian and goes in hard. Like very hard, pushing to save kits. Now this would be easy to call an open and shut case and say Darryl is potential scum here...but nin throws a huge wrench into that. Near day end nin finally places a vote..and votes on kits over Sorian. Right before he votes the count is kit - 6 and Sorian - 5. Nin has a chance to tie the vote up and give kit a chance to survive...but he doesn't. By voting kit it extends the lead and Sorian fades as kit gets lynched. This makes me very doubtful that this boat is scum unless nin is playing at a different level than he appears to be (considering he's done literally nothing all game). Would not lynch here.
In conclusion, possible scum (starting with most likely): Ouro
Royal Star
Kark (jumps up to Ouro's place if Ouro flips scum) Sophia
Now that I've typed this all out somehow we'll die tonight.
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Post by miketruk303 on Aug 11, 2017 12:32:23 GMT -8
What was with WAMD's read
just her or was it just bad (d2)
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Post by natiko on Aug 11, 2017 13:12:34 GMT -8
WAMD's read of kit as scum? Likely just her being lazy and carrying over a read from D1 and not bothering to outline the argument herself. She was pretty busy with life from the sounds of it.
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Post by miketruk303 on Aug 11, 2017 13:23:10 GMT -8
WAMD's read of kit as scum? Likely just her being lazy and carrying over a read from D1 and not bothering to outline the argument herself. She was pretty busy with life from the sounds of it. I don't blame her for being lazy though between you and me, she should like find a replacement for herself Air Force life sounds rough from what I've heard But good on her, for fitting a silly game of mafia in her hectic life
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Post by natiko on Aug 11, 2017 14:18:55 GMT -8
WAMD's read of kit as scum? Likely just her being lazy and carrying over a read from D1 and not bothering to outline the argument herself. She was pretty busy with life from the sounds of it. I don't blame her for being lazy though between you and me, she should like find a replacement for herself Air Force life sounds rough from what I've heard But good on her, for fitting a silly game of mafia in her hectic life Eh she's doing fine. If she was having trouble meeting posting requirements then that would be one thing. She was on kit while we had out them aside after all haha
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Post by natiko on Aug 12, 2017 10:09:54 GMT -8
Any thoughts on where you're leaning going into today? If we live I may even post my analysis verbatim - we'll see.
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Post by natiko on Aug 12, 2017 15:04:52 GMT -8
Yikes lol
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Post by miketruk303 on Aug 12, 2017 23:15:40 GMT -8
What happened? I missed it
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Post by natiko on Aug 12, 2017 23:20:25 GMT -8
What happened? I missed it Three people all dropped from the game including the samurai/muffin duo.No need to speculate on why as bear requested. Just was a bit shocking to see lol Not going to post in the thread a bit, people seem so cagey about when partners show up again together.
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Post by miketruk303 on Aug 13, 2017 14:33:46 GMT -8
Bored of freaking Ouro
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Post by miketruk303 on Aug 13, 2017 15:08:10 GMT -8
You think CrimsonSophia will last long after d3?
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Post by natiko on Aug 13, 2017 16:42:02 GMT -8
I could see them lasting some more. They're not super widely town read.
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Post by natiko on Aug 13, 2017 16:52:35 GMT -8
You've certainly made your presence known in a memorable way today lol
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Post by miketruk303 on Aug 13, 2017 17:21:04 GMT -8
You've certainly made your presence known in a memorable way today lol Hooker? Mailman? Virgin?       ??
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Post by natiko on Aug 13, 2017 18:52:40 GMT -8
It's interesting being of such different playstyles. People seem really unsure of how to view us lol
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Post by miketruk303 on Aug 15, 2017 10:37:45 GMT -8
You think this silence thing is true with Ouro?
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Post by miketruk303 on Aug 15, 2017 10:49:21 GMT -8
HOLY SHIT
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Post by miketruk303 on Aug 15, 2017 11:00:32 GMT -8
I'm more impressed to anything else that Ouro (of all people) got ME to change my vote considering how hard I was busting on him in the last days or so. That's some damn good drive to survive bullshit
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Post by natiko on Aug 15, 2017 11:01:07 GMT -8
I do think Ouro is silenced. I'm inclined to believe Royal is the silencer. One of these two have to be scum imo.
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Post by natiko on Aug 15, 2017 11:06:38 GMT -8
Welp. Royal and Star are the ones I would most look at tomorrow. I have a feeling we will be under suspicion, seemed to be several people picking up steam on us at the end.
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Post by miketruk303 on Aug 15, 2017 11:09:30 GMT -8
Welp. Royal and Star are the ones I would most look at tomorrow. I have a feeling we will be under suspicion, seemed to be several people picking up steam on us at the end. WELP
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Post by miketruk303 on Aug 15, 2017 11:10:17 GMT -8
I do think Ouro is silenced. I'm inclined to believe Royal is the silencer. One of these two have to be scum imo. If Ouro was Town, then Royal is Scum damn
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Post by miketruk303 on Aug 15, 2017 11:14:42 GMT -8
That loud groan you just heard was me, sorry
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Post by natiko on Aug 15, 2017 11:43:45 GMT -8
It's okay, we have several mislynches to go. We needed to see Ouro's flip to be sure. Royal seems so likely to be scum and he was picking "scummy looking" targets he knew wouldn't be scum in order to be able to try and claim town when claiming. Star looks to be scum because I doubt scum as a hooker roleblocks town Ouro twice instead of going for the Virgins. I'm guessing Ouro was only blocked once and Star actually did receive the message. Royal knows there will be no one silenced from here out even if it's unlimited use because they need to submit the NK going forward while Star roleblocks. Royal and monkey claimed today thinking it would make them look townier and knowing they will not both be around the next day phase. That being said I may go after Star tomorrow with Royal out.
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Post by miketruk303 on Aug 15, 2017 11:48:28 GMT -8
What about Hey_Monkey?
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Post by natiko on Aug 15, 2017 11:56:45 GMT -8
While it's true monkey will be around it's entirely possible that they may have the sympathy vote currently. Plus if Star is the roleblocker that is a far more valuable target to take out.
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Post by miketruk303 on Aug 15, 2017 19:21:35 GMT -8
Now I'm worried if we'll get silenced
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Post by natiko on Aug 15, 2017 21:43:37 GMT -8
Nah they'd get lynched in a heartbeat if someone was silenced after they claimed having no shots.
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Post by miketruk303 on Aug 16, 2017 11:12:26 GMT -8
We're going after Star or Royal?
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