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Post by FluxWaveZ on Feb 14, 2017 13:00:49 GMT -8
Haha, bingo. I love it when a plan comes together; exactly what we set out to do is what happened.
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Post by Bronx-Man on Feb 14, 2017 13:15:25 GMT -8
All we need are four kills now to take this one home.
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Post by FluxWaveZ on Feb 14, 2017 13:24:28 GMT -8
Heh, Sorian's changing his story to an odd night commuter. I like it.
I think we might have to kill him tonight with Bronx's ability, if Bronx doesn't get lynched.
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Post by FluxWaveZ on Feb 14, 2017 13:55:28 GMT -8
nin1000 is right, Bronx. You might have just messed up bad by going against rule 28:
"28. Outside of votes and explicit allowances made by role PMs, the use of the highlight tag is strictly the game-runner's prerogative. Do not use it."
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Post by FluxWaveZ on Feb 14, 2017 13:58:27 GMT -8
Ah wait, might not be as bad as I thought. It doesn't prove that what you highlighted is a lie at all: technically, no one would be allowed to highlight their actual role name like that in the thread.
Never mind, then. Crisis averted.
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Post by natiko on Feb 14, 2017 14:43:11 GMT -8
I really am busy all day so hopefully no one pounces on me when I'm not around. We can roleblock Sorian and kill him tonight if I'm alive. Or would a strongman kill ignore the commuting? Not sure how that works.
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Post by FluxWaveZ on Feb 14, 2017 15:02:53 GMT -8
A strongman would definitely not ignore the commuting. I actually still don't feel killing Sorian is that urgent right now (though the day has just begun), but I don't like the gambit he's playing with his commuter role and whether it's odd or even nights. We don't even know if he's actually a commuter at all.
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Post by natiko on Feb 14, 2017 22:44:01 GMT -8
Looks like Bronx might be hosed.
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Post by FluxWaveZ on Feb 14, 2017 23:06:18 GMT -8
Catching up and, ah... yeah. I'm sorry Bronx, but it's bus time. I can't defend you here, that'll look really bad on me, and similarly for Natiko when you inevitably flip. And that point about you having a named role but no power is a good one.
Don't worry, we've got this. I just can't look too overzealous about the lynch, but I think a few players know I'm keen to turbos.
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Post by FluxWaveZ on Feb 14, 2017 23:15:48 GMT -8
Well, actually, Natiko's doing an alright job as the reasonable mediator, and Bronx only has 3 votes on him right now. I'm gonna vote, though. It's the thing I'd normally do as town in this situation, and voting when things aren't at their denouement will make me appear better moving forward.
If Bronx would miraculously escape from today's lynch, I think the suitable target would be OceanicAir. If we want to turn the tides, I feel like this is the person to point to.
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Post by FluxWaveZ on Feb 15, 2017 1:00:31 GMT -8
Actually, maybe nvm OA. I thought there might hae been something there with him not having voted at all and a possible FA, but that prod resulted in a dead end. I guess a case could be made against him and not voting anyways, but that's apparently his playstyle. So far, he's looking too "open" and seemingly town; I don't know if a shift towards him would fly.
Sorian's no good, not yet. StarSketch isn't good at all. I think it'd be:
1. nin1000
2. StanleyPalmtree
3. kingkitty
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Post by natiko on Feb 15, 2017 7:59:16 GMT -8
I don't think there's any way we can flip this lynch to someone else unless Bronx makes a miraculous reversal. Even if he does we have to be careful about trying to seem eager to change the narrative
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Post by Bronx-Man on Feb 15, 2017 10:59:17 GMT -8
Damn, no honor among thieves.
G-Unit would never do this
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Post by FluxWaveZ on Feb 15, 2017 11:51:32 GMT -8
For the greater good and all that, my man. It does look like you're on standby to get lynched today, but Town is fickle. I won't be actively defending you, but I'll try to think of something incriminating to point at someone else to possibly get something going.
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Post by Bronx-Man on Feb 15, 2017 13:40:18 GMT -8
On the bright side, you guys are being read as town right now by a good number of them, so we've got that going for us.
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Post by Bronx-Man on Feb 16, 2017 18:05:40 GMT -8
You guys better win this.
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Post by natiko on Feb 16, 2017 18:06:46 GMT -8
We're going to do our best. Thanks for your sacrifice Bronx. We will bring this home for you  |
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Post by FluxWaveZ on Feb 16, 2017 18:10:11 GMT -8
It might get a bit rough with 2 of us left, but we'll definitely try.
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Post by natiko on Feb 16, 2017 18:14:42 GMT -8
We just have to get two mislynches and right now neither of us has that much heat. I think we have a decent chance at it.
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Post by FluxWaveZ on Feb 16, 2017 18:26:14 GMT -8
I think we actually need 3 mislynches.
Start of D4: 2 v 7
Start of D5: 2 v 5 (after 1 mislynch)
Start of D6: 2 v 3 (after 2 mislynches)
So we'd need to also get through Day 6 with both of us surviving. Of course, this is barring stuff like someone accidentally triggering their FA or something. OceanicAir's FA might be one of the ones that get disabled during MYLO, so there's that, too.
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Post by natiko on Feb 16, 2017 18:31:17 GMT -8
You left out our NK tonight. It will actually be
2 v 6 D4
Mislynch
NK
2 v 4 D5
Mislynch
NK
2 v 2 D6
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Post by FluxWaveZ on Feb 16, 2017 18:37:35 GMT -8
Oh crap, you're right, we get to kill someone now. I'll post my thoughts about how we might want to do this in a bit.
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Post by natiko on Feb 16, 2017 18:42:21 GMT -8
No worries. Just to get my preliminary thoughts out I think we should kill either Star or Stanley. Roleblock King Kitty.
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Post by FluxWaveZ on Feb 16, 2017 19:39:45 GMT -8
All Forbidden Actions:
The only one to not have said anything about their forbidden action yet is nin1000.
Current (potential) Power Roles:
- Sorian: An even or odd night commuter.
- kingkitty: Potential power role due to the vagueness of his forbidden action.
- OceanicAir: Potential power role due to the nature of his forbidden action.
- nin1000: Potential power role due to not having implied anything at all about his role so far.
If we simply consider the forbidden actions, it seems that the rest of the town that are still alive might be vanilla.
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Post by FluxWaveZ on Feb 16, 2017 20:06:36 GMT -8
It seems that, from what I can tell, these are who people will be gunning for as D4 starts (ignoring the person we will kill): - Sorian: Ty4on or OceanicAir. Leaning more towards OA. Does not believe both of them are together. Also believes nin1000 is scum. (http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=230458671&postcount=1911)
- kingkitty: Ty4on or StarSketch. Believes that her being hesitant in using the override could relate to having to kill her teammate, Bronx. (http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=230397417&postcount=1880)
- StanleyPalmtree: Likely nin1000.
- Ty4on: Has this underlying suspicion regarding Sorian.
- StarSketch: Dunno. Seems she'd be swayed by the will of the majority.
- OceanicAir: Unsure. Seems that, if people argued for it, he'd end up going with a Ty4on vote.
- nin1000: Don't think he'd be aiming for anyone in particular. His behavior might change as he inevitably gets more heat on D4, which might cause him to try to direct attention towards someone else. The likely targets for that would be OceanicAir and Ty4on.
Basically, it seems tomorrow's lynch will be between Ty4on, OceanicAir and nin1000. It'll most probably be between Ty4on and nin1000.
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Post by FluxWaveZ on Feb 16, 2017 20:24:38 GMT -8
Alright, so for our kill.
StarSketch
StarSketch is a good target, because she's basically confirmed town right now, so her opinions are taken at face value. kingkitty could cause some confusion by continuing to suspect her, but everyone would end up talking him down. Best case scenario is that would make himself seem more suspicious, but it would instead likely result in nothing.
However, I don't think we should kill her. As I typed above, I think she's a player who's prone to go with the flow of the majority without making arguments that go against the flow and directing town's attention elsewhere. Given tomorrow's likely targets, I think keeping her alive would just give us a better chance at a mislynch since she'd be considered a bonus vote on the person in question, unless someone else were to convince most of the town that one of us is scum. In any case, she wouldn't be the one to do it.
StanleyPalmtree
I doubt this guy's a power role, and he's pretty much been a non-presence, or has at the very least not had much influence at all. Plus, he doesn't particularly seem to suspect any of us. Why do you want to kill him? If it's for a "safe" kill, I dunno if that kind of caution is too necessary anymore, with the doctor being gone.
Sorian
The longer the game goes, the more dangerous it'll become to keep him alive. Maybe the danger point won't be tomorrow, but him being alive during D5 will be bad. So it comes down to this: do we think he's an even night commuter, or an odd night commuter?
His language in post #1153 was like this:
And then #1759:
One of these is obviously a bluff. And I think we should think of it like this: we're going to have to kill this guy at some point, and it'll be a gamble at any point because of what he's done. I say we take it now.
Here's what I think: if he was a commuter and his forbidden action was related to that ability, I think the FA would relate to the end of Day 2, and not the end of Day 3. He deliberately makes his second claim sound like it's something he came up with off the top of his head, which is kind of dangerous since that could actually be the real deal, but I say we call his bluff.
I say that our kill target for tonight, N4, should be Sorian.
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Post by FluxWaveZ on Feb 16, 2017 20:28:31 GMT -8
I meant "N3."
As for who we should role block (I forgot we still had that ability), I think it should be one of the potential power roles. So kingkitty would be a good target for it. Him or shooting in the bush with nin1000, but I think kingkitty is a better chance at it actually doing something.
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Post by natiko on Feb 16, 2017 21:37:46 GMT -8
My reasoning for killing Star or Stan is neither takes away a potential lynch target. There's been very little interest in those two and I don't think either is getting lynched D4 or D5 for that matter. Sorian is almost universally wrong and it's turning Ty against him. The longer Sorian lives the more likely he is to be lynched himself. My thinking is basically kill those who a strong case to be lynched can't be made for. In my mind that's Star, king kitty, and Stanley. I opted to not go for killing king kitty as him and OA (maybe nin too I guess) are the only ones that seem like they could die due to their FA.
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Post by FluxWaveZ on Feb 16, 2017 22:13:51 GMT -8
OceanicAir has a likelihood of dying due to his FA, but I don't think kingkitty will let that happen, since there's no way to really force him from saying what he apparently can't.
I agree with that reasoning for the kill, in which case I guess I'd opt for Stanley, but keeping Sorian alive still makes me pretty uneasy. What you're proposing here means that Sorian will be left alive for the rest of the game. Are you okay with that? As more information is revealed and as more people flip, Sorian has the capability to change his thinking, which could be very dangerous territory for both of us.
Actually, I might say that we should kill kingkitty, if we're not going for Sorian. kingkitty is now practically confirmed town due to his part in getting Bronx lynched, and that means he's in a similar league as StarSketch is. He's also potentially still an active power role. I do not think he'll be activating his own forbidden action, and he's obviously not going to become a lynch target.
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Post by FluxWaveZ on Feb 16, 2017 22:17:15 GMT -8
Of course, there's the part about Sorian becoming more likely to get lynched as time passes, but I don't think that's actually going to be happening.
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