I really am busy all day so hopefully no one pounces on me when I'm not around. We can roleblock Sorian and kill him tonight if I'm alive. Or would a strongman kill ignore the commuting? Not sure how that works.
A strongman would definitely not ignore the commuting. I actually still don't feel killing Sorian is that urgent right now (though the day has just begun), but I don't like the gambit he's playing with his commuter role and whether it's odd or even nights. We don't even know if he's actually a commuter at all.
Catching up and, ah... yeah. I'm sorry Bronx, but it's bus time. I can't defend you here, that'll look really bad on me, and similarly for Natiko when you inevitably flip. And that point about you having a named role but no power is a good one.
Don't worry, we've got this. I just can't look too overzealous about the lynch, but I think a few players know I'm keen to turbos.
Well, actually, Natiko's doing an alright job as the reasonable mediator, and Bronx only has 3 votes on him right now. I'm gonna vote, though. It's the thing I'd normally do as town in this situation, and voting when things aren't at their denouement will make me appear better moving forward.
If Bronx would miraculously escape from today's lynch, I think the suitable target would be OceanicAir. If we want to turn the tides, I feel like this is the person to point to.
Actually, maybe nvm OA. I thought there might hae been something there with him not having voted at all and a possible FA, but that prod resulted in a dead end. I guess a case could be made against him and not voting anyways, but that's apparently his playstyle. So far, he's looking too "open" and seemingly town; I don't know if a shift towards him would fly.
Sorian's no good, not yet. StarSketch isn't good at all. I think it'd be:
For the greater good and all that, my man. It does look like you're on standby to get lynched today, but Town is fickle. I won't be actively defending you, but I'll try to think of something incriminating to point at someone else to possibly get something going.
Start of D4: 2 v 7 Start of D5: 2 v 5 (after 1 mislynch) Start of D6: 2 v 3 (after 2 mislynches)
So we'd need to also get through Day 6 with both of us surviving. Of course, this is barring stuff like someone accidentally triggering their FA or something. OceanicAir's FA might be one of the ones that get disabled during MYLO, so there's that, too.
It seems that, from what I can tell, these are who people will be gunning for as D4 starts (ignoring the person we will kill):
Sorian: Ty4on or OceanicAir. Leaning more towards OA. Does not believe both of them are together. Also believes nin1000 is scum. (http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=230458671&postcount=1911)
kingkitty: Ty4on or StarSketch. Believes that her being hesitant in using the override could relate to having to kill her teammate, Bronx. (http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=230397417&postcount=1880)
StanleyPalmtree: Likely nin1000.
Ty4on: Has this underlying suspicion regarding Sorian.
StarSketch: Dunno. Seems she'd be swayed by the will of the majority.
OceanicAir: Unsure. Seems that, if people argued for it, he'd end up going with a Ty4on vote.
nin1000: Don't think he'd be aiming for anyone in particular. His behavior might change as he inevitably gets more heat on D4, which might cause him to try to direct attention towards someone else. The likely targets for that would be OceanicAir and Ty4on.
Basically, it seems tomorrow's lynch will be between Ty4on, OceanicAir and nin1000. It'll most probably be between Ty4on and nin1000.
StarSketch is a good target, because she's basically confirmed town right now, so her opinions are taken at face value. kingkitty could cause some confusion by continuing to suspect her, but everyone would end up talking him down. Best case scenario is that would make himself seem more suspicious, but it would instead likely result in nothing.
However, I don't think we should kill her. As I typed above, I think she's a player who's prone to go with the flow of the majority without making arguments that go against the flow and directing town's attention elsewhere. Given tomorrow's likely targets, I think keeping her alive would just give us a better chance at a mislynch since she'd be considered a bonus vote on the person in question, unless someone else were to convince most of the town that one of us is scum. In any case, she wouldn't be the one to do it.
I doubt this guy's a power role, and he's pretty much been a non-presence, or has at the very least not had much influence at all. Plus, he doesn't particularly seem to suspect any of us. Why do you want to kill him? If it's for a "safe" kill, I dunno if that kind of caution is too necessary anymore, with the doctor being gone.
The longer the game goes, the more dangerous it'll become to keep him alive. Maybe the danger point won't be tomorrow, but him being alive during D5 will be bad. So it comes down to this: do we think he's an even night commuter, or an odd night commuter?
His language in post #1153 was like this:
Also, let's get this out of the way now so that I don't get burned if the day ends early for some reason, my FA is still in place and I have to role claim before day 2 ends. I'm an even night commuter. So gg on not killing me N1 for once, also gg when I get hit with the barrage of "Sorian is obviously scum and is just trying to excuse living through night phases."
And then #1759:
Also I was thinking on it. I may have confused my PR. I'm actually an odd night commuter that has to claim by the end of day 3. Let's go with that.
I obviously know which type of commuter that I am so believe me or not on the larger premise here. The only way I was getting utility out of this role was by confusing scum on which nights I can and can not die. So now they can deal with both claims. As for actual town players, you get the horrible feeling of having to figure out where you really stand with me because I do have an excuse to be surviving NKs at this point and I know the meta has gotten lazy to the point of just hoping I die early so that a real read of me doesn't have to be made.
One of these is obviously a bluff. And I think we should think of it like this: we're going to have to kill this guy at some point, and it'll be a gamble at any point because of what he's done. I say we take it now.
Here's what I think: if he was a commuter and his forbidden action was related to that ability, I think the FA would relate to the end of Day 2, and not the end of Day 3. He deliberately makes his second claim sound like it's something he came up with off the top of his head, which is kind of dangerous since that could actually be the real deal, but I say we call his bluff.
I say that our kill target for tonight, N4, should be Sorian.
As for who we should role block (I forgot we still had that ability), I think it should be one of the potential power roles. So kingkitty would be a good target for it. Him or shooting in the bush with nin1000, but I think kingkitty is a better chance at it actually doing something.
My reasoning for killing Star or Stan is neither takes away a potential lynch target. There's been very little interest in those two and I don't think either is getting lynched D4 or D5 for that matter. Sorian is almost universally wrong and it's turning Ty against him. The longer Sorian lives the more likely he is to be lynched himself. My thinking is basically kill those who a strong case to be lynched can't be made for. In my mind that's Star, king kitty, and Stanley. I opted to not go for killing king kitty as him and OA (maybe nin too I guess) are the only ones that seem like they could die due to their FA.
OceanicAir has a likelihood of dying due to his FA, but I don't think kingkitty will let that happen, since there's no way to really force him from saying what he apparently can't.
I agree with that reasoning for the kill, in which case I guess I'd opt for Stanley, but keeping Sorian alive still makes me pretty uneasy. What you're proposing here means that Sorian will be left alive for the rest of the game. Are you okay with that? As more information is revealed and as more people flip, Sorian has the capability to change his thinking, which could be very dangerous territory for both of us.
Actually, I might say that we should kill kingkitty, if we're not going for Sorian. kingkitty is now practically confirmed town due to his part in getting Bronx lynched, and that means he's in a similar league as StarSketch is. He's also potentially still an active power role. I do not think he'll be activating his own forbidden action, and he's obviously not going to become a lynch target.