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Post by CzarTim on Jan 11, 2017 15:27:07 GMT -8
Claim both in the thread, I think.
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Post by natiko on Jan 11, 2017 15:38:09 GMT -8
I agree. Just didn't want to whiplash the conversation away from myself as if I was trying to avoid it so I thought I would mention it to you in the meantime.
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Post by CzarTim on Jan 11, 2017 15:45:27 GMT -8
The chances both visited you is very small. Kind of weird
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Post by natiko on Jan 11, 2017 15:46:34 GMT -8
Yeah, it's kind of really crappy luck considering it was a good item lol Could maybe have bought us an extra day phase. As is I'm going to guess we won't live to see tomorrow. Especially if another two NKs occur.
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Post by CzarTim on Jan 12, 2017 16:18:33 GMT -8
Man what a disappointing day two. For having some of gafia's most talkative people everyone sure it's quiet.
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Post by natiko on Jan 12, 2017 16:42:44 GMT -8
Yeah, doesn't feel like we have much to work off. Makes me wonder if all of town is off base currently so they're just laying low so they don't draw suspicion.
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Post by CzarTim on Jan 12, 2017 18:07:18 GMT -8
The issue with your logic is mainly that I've never ever seen a scum team decide to sacrifice one of their own on purpose with the intention of clearing another scum member. Like scum teams don't usually coordinate to that degree. And if they had, aco's behavior doesn't really match. He'd have been better off straight bussing.
Maybe, if ccs is scum, the other two members got frustrated and bussed, but it really didn't seem needed.
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Post by CzarTim on Jan 12, 2017 18:12:14 GMT -8
And further going down that path, when did this plan get approved? Melon actually looks good here considering how early the vote is. I can't see kawl ever approving this plan especially since he's still on it. Stanley, maybe, then the votes after ccs' self vote.
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Post by CzarTim on Jan 12, 2017 18:14:37 GMT -8
The issue with your logic is mainly that I've never ever seen a scum team decide to sacrifice one of their own on purpose with the intention of clearing another scum member. Like scum teams don't usually coordinate to that degree. And if they had, aco's behavior doesn't really match. He'd have been better off straight bussing. Maybe, if ccs is scum, the other two members got frustrated and bussed, but it really didn't seem needed. On day one at least. |
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Post by natiko on Jan 12, 2017 18:23:33 GMT -8
I guess my thought it what is the alternative option for scum if they are both in fact scum?
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Post by natiko on Jan 12, 2017 18:27:36 GMT -8
If CCS isn't scum then we have almost nothing right now. We have Bronx looking a little iffy, but not by much since if he is scum I don't think he phrases his CCS vote as he did or does the vote flopping today when CCS is town. Past that it's a bunch of ambivalent posters that could maybe be scum but with no actual evidence of it. If someone could confirm CCS is town this very instant the only player I would vote for is maybe Sophia. Or possibly magnum or terra as complete shots in the dark.
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Post by CzarTim on Jan 12, 2017 18:27:51 GMT -8
There are likely four scum, if two are up for lynches, I'm not sure you can create a reliable plan there. You bus or you vote elsewhere and "miss" day's end.
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Post by natiko on Jan 12, 2017 18:31:17 GMT -8
Right, and my thought is they did bus and still missed. Up until the end it looked like CCS was going to take it. If scum are on the CCS vote would they dare shift to acohrs last second? Seems unlikely to me. They would just be stuck stranded on CCS.
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Post by CzarTim on Jan 12, 2017 18:35:28 GMT -8
Right, and my thought is they did bus and still missed. Up until the end it looked like CCS was going to take it. If scum are on the CCS vote would they dare shift to acohrs last second? Seems unlikely to me. They would just be stuck stranded on CCS. I very much agree. |
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Post by CzarTim on Jan 12, 2017 18:38:18 GMT -8
If CCS isn't scum then we have almost nothing right now. We have Bronx looking a little iffy, but not by much since if he is scum I don't think he phrases his CCS vote as he did or does the vote flopping today when CCS is town. Past that it's a bunch of ambivalent posters that could maybe be scum but with no actual evidence of it. If someone could confirm CCS is town this very instant the only player I would vote for is maybe Sophia. Or possibly magnum or terra as complete shots in the dark. I think I am going to write a post in the main thread following this logic, let me know what you think. I wouldn't say we have nothing though, or at least we have more than we would have if aco flipped town  |
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Post by natiko on Jan 12, 2017 18:40:51 GMT -8
If CCS isn't scum then we have almost nothing right now. We have Bronx looking a little iffy, but not by much since if he is scum I don't think he phrases his CCS vote as he did or does the vote flopping today when CCS is town. Past that it's a bunch of ambivalent posters that could maybe be scum but with no actual evidence of it. If someone could confirm CCS is town this very instant the only player I would vote for is maybe Sophia. Or possibly magnum or terra as complete shots in the dark. I think I am going to write a post in the main thread following this logic, let me know what you think. I wouldn't say we have nothing though, or at least we have more than we would have if aco flipped town Yeah that should be fine. I don't want to have a Bronx moment and just do a 180 suddenly so that logic is best coming from someone else at this point |
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Post by CzarTim on Jan 12, 2017 18:41:54 GMT -8
Right, and my thought is they did bus and still missed. Up until the end it looked like CCS was going to take it. If scum are on the CCS vote would they dare shift to acohrs last second? Seems unlikely to me. They would just be stuck stranded on CCS. I very much agree. Though aside from sophia, who I can't see as scum if ccs is too, and AB, who unvoted at the last second, no one did switch their vote. Still, who comes off worse here? Like would scum have bussed pre-self vote? |
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Post by CzarTim on Jan 12, 2017 18:58:05 GMT -8
Might actually do that post in the morning, so don't wait for it. I want to do more reading on some people.
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Post by natiko on Jan 12, 2017 19:01:21 GMT -8
If CCS is scum I don't think Sophia is. I only see Sophia as possible scum if CCS is town. I think the moment they decided to bus CCS is with a little under an hour to go. Acohrs and CCS end up tied for the vote lead. From that moment onwards there's some suspect voting. CCS forcing the threeway tie instead of putting acohrs in the lead, Bronx with his weird CCS vote, and Ynnek7 reappearing to push CCS to a two vote lead once Sorian makes it close for acohrs again. My melon/Stanley suspicion doesn't come out the idea they explicitly wanted to lynch CCS more so that their votes became stranded once the heat suddenly kicked up. If one of them is scum, how could they move their vote at that point? If they move to a nobody then they'll get called out on it, if they move to acohrs late it could risk looking like a bus since we'll 100% know acohrs' alignment in the end. I think one of them could have been scum left with no choice but to sit.
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Post by CzarTim on Jan 12, 2017 19:19:04 GMT -8
I think reads don't shift too much here if ccs flips town:
Melon / stanley / ynnek / bronx still look scummy, imo. Either they were bussing or saving aco.
pop and magnum look scummy either way, but mostly for being awol.
So really I think ccs' flip mainly makes me look at aco voters in a different light, the rest look bad either way.
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Post by CzarTim on Jan 12, 2017 19:25:36 GMT -8
I think reads don't shift too much here if ccs flips town: Melon / stanley / ynnek / bronx still look scummy, imo. Either they were bussing or saving aco. pop and magnum look scummy either way, but mostly for being awol. So really I think ccs' flip mainly makes me look at aco voters in a different light, the rest look bad either way. And if the rest of the scum team is here, this isn't really a talkative bunch. |
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Post by natiko on Jan 12, 2017 19:27:19 GMT -8
I think reads don't shift too much here if ccs flips town: Melon / stanley / ynnek / bronx still look scummy, imo. Either they were bussing or saving aco. pop and magnum look scummy either way, but mostly for being awol. So really I think ccs' flip mainly makes me look at aco voters in a different light, the rest look bad either way. That's true. I think I genuinely have a hard time putting myself in scum's shoes since I have never been on that side. I tend to overinflate their coordination and tactics. I try to put them on a level higher than they probably operate on most of the time. I also need to remember that we have accidental insight that scum likely could not swiftly communicate at the end there. |
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Post by CzarTim on Jan 12, 2017 19:30:34 GMT -8
The only high level scum play in gafia history was woof 2, isn't that right, saw?
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Post by natiko on Jan 12, 2017 19:44:47 GMT -8
What do you think the chances are we get picked off tonight? And if they're high is there anything we should do to try and lessen them or to help town before we die?
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Post by CzarTim on Jan 12, 2017 19:50:41 GMT -8
We'll see, I think it's high but not guaranteed.
I know this is weird, but I'd actually rather go earlier unless we dominate scum. I don't want to enter lylo with a multikill still on the table. The only way we could lessen the chances is to act scummy enough that mafia want us around, but that might warrant a cop to look at us, which defeats the purpose of our role.
As for helping town, all we can do is offer our opinion
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Post by natiko on Jan 12, 2017 19:53:01 GMT -8
Oh I don't think there's any chance we could live that long. I figure at absolute max we could make it one more day, but I honestly don't think that'll happen. We're getting town read by too many people.
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Post by CzarTim on Jan 12, 2017 20:00:11 GMT -8
and the doc is dead
and your bp is stolen
actually the thief hitting us makes me think they were prepping a nk for tonight. kill fran, steal from you to make sure your clean for tomorrow?
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Post by CzarTim on Jan 12, 2017 20:03:17 GMT -8
hmmmmmm, I bet that's exactly what happened
rip us
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Post by natiko on Jan 12, 2017 20:10:37 GMT -8
Maybe I should do something stupid later and see if there's anyone eager to push for a lynch on me. Scum probably wouldn't be the first vote but if I can pull a few we might have scum in there and you can then clear me as masons. I dunno.
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Post by CzarTim on Jan 12, 2017 20:12:08 GMT -8
let's not go full ccs |
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