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Post by absolutbro on Jan 23, 2017 11:17:28 GMT -8
I have a horrible feeling this is going to blow up in our faces...
NO RAGRETS
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Post by Terrabyte20xx on Jan 23, 2017 11:26:50 GMT -8
Look at it this way, epic bus, no scum could possibly come up with this idea and do it knowing their teammates were at total risk.
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Post by ynnek7 on Jan 23, 2017 11:34:47 GMT -8
Oh, going back to your thought on killing ty tonight: unless we lynch the SK today, we should probably kill and block two new targets. There's still the chance of them hitting us that I think is more dangerous than a confirmed town.
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Post by absolutbro on Jan 23, 2017 11:37:55 GMT -8
Fair enough and apologies in advance if one of you bites it.
OTOH, if we get a town lynched it should be easy enough to say "we cannot really redo the experiment since you all have full knowledge of what the methodology is, it required unbiased blah blah blah". Keep the results from being too useful if one of us is #2 on the block.
Or we bus for town points and hope we can hang on. Cross that bridge and all that.
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Post by absolutbro on Jan 23, 2017 11:44:28 GMT -8
Oh, going back to your thought on killing ty tonight: unless we lynch the SK today, we should probably kill and block two new targets. There's still the chance of them hitting us that I think is more dangerous than a confirmed town. Only problem is that every "not confirmed" town we kill is one less person to cast doubt on. Kill Ty and blocking someone else is still our best best I think. We know there is one more item out there, since Ty lied about giving the item to cabot N3 (good catch, BTW). We know it was not one of us three, probably not *Splinter again, and he cannot keep it himself; that leaves 5 options and I think we might be able to rule out Sophia. Leaves us 1-in-4 odds of getting whatever it was. Or I guess there's a town Roleblocker that blocked Ty last night, but still worth taking the chance I think.
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Post by absolutbro on Jan 23, 2017 14:22:21 GMT -8
Ynnek, in response to splinter asking "Why the SK, you could point out that finding/stopping the SK means one kill per night instead of two. Finding scum is good, but doesn't stop two kills per night (which speeds up a town loss)".
Something like that, anyway.
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Post by absolutbro on Jan 23, 2017 14:23:21 GMT -8
For why could stan not be scum I do not know if I can really help you. "You thought X,Y,Z might be scum instead, based on _________"?
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Post by ynnek7 on Jan 23, 2017 15:08:42 GMT -8
I'm going to respond to that when I get home tonight. For the "why Sk and not scum" question, I'll pretty much reiterate that Stanley didn't seem to be playing with teammates in mind, which is why I leaned neutral.
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Post by absolutbro on Jan 23, 2017 17:40:30 GMT -8
Ynnek, I'm sorry but this exercise seems to have blown up specifically in your face so far. I'm still aggregating, trying to mess with numbers, but more people suspect you primarily than anyone else. I will post the results in here before I put them in the game thread.
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Post by ynnek7 on Jan 23, 2017 17:52:10 GMT -8
No worries, lol. I'll fight it as best I can, but this should give you some town credit for putting this together.
I will probably last ditch role claim if things look too dire and neither of you are in the cross hairs. Maybe they'll want to keep a roleblocker around if there's still a SK out there.
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Post by absolutbro on Jan 23, 2017 17:53:44 GMT -8
remember when I mentioned backfire? Total votes: Ynnek and Bronx at 6 are our leaders. Terra at 5 is third place. Sophia and Magnum have 4 and are 4th place If I assign points (3 for first, 2 for second, 1 for third) then the scores are Ynnek with 16, Bronx with 14, Magnum and Terra tie at 9. Basically, we are pretty heavily suspected. I think the best way forward is to ignore the weighted score, just go with totals? Of course, then they'll wonder why they had to be in order if I'm looking at total number. Do you think you can talk your way out Ynnek? Maybe a role claim to save yourself?
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Post by Terrabyte20xx on Jan 23, 2017 18:01:46 GMT -8
If you post it keep the weighted totals. It looks worse to us than it would to the average Joe. Keep in mind that if we end up bussing Ynnek because of it it should get us some serious town cread. It's actually an ingenious bus tool for that actually.
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Post by Terrabyte20xx on Jan 23, 2017 18:04:32 GMT -8
Bronx has enough heat that I am not sure we want to clear him of anything unless we are going to make a serious and clear push for someone else like Sophia or Magnum. We cannot push Ty4on, and pushing Kyan right now might be difficult. I was thinking of proposing this: I would like to try something. I actually saw this in a mini-series called "The Assets" in which Jodie Whittaker plays a CIA analyst hunting a mole; it is a "based on reality" story of Aldrich Ames.
Top 3 scum for everyone, rated 1 - 3. You take that, total up the numerical results and see where that puts our group suspicions. In the series, Aldridge Ames was rarely someone's #1 option, but was overwhelmingly #2 to most people. I would be curious to see where this puts our game, and since we have a full RL day to tabulate results everyone has time to get their post in.We could obviously make sure we weighted enough to push someone into a good #1/#2 slot. Don't forget to keep this in mind. The part about being number two is critical to why we numbered the way we did, otherwise I would have made Bronx number one.
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Post by absolutbro on Jan 23, 2017 18:19:55 GMT -8
Dangit Terra I just realize you had Ynnek as your primary choice XD If you had just switched him and Bronx this would be so much easier.
Or, ya know, I don't come up with this stupid idea in the first place.
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Post by absolutbro on Jan 23, 2017 18:21:03 GMT -8
Should have refreshed this thread. Good point Terra. Anyway: Okay, so explanation first: There is a fantastic miniseries called The Assets, which is based on the real events of Adrich Ames. Aldrich Ames was a CIA agent turned Soviet mole. He is responsible for a large number of CIA assets in the former Soviet Union being capture and killed by the KGB. Why do I mention this? There is a scene in which Jodie Whittaker (<3) is positive there is a mole and has gathered the other analysts to try to figure out who it is. Now in the show, they do this by blind ballot so some votes do not influence the others. Obviously that was not going to work here, so our results may skew a little. The other skew is that we're looking for 3 scum players, not just 1 single mole. That brings us to my request: top 3, in order. I counted how many mentions each person received, as well as assigning a value to each mention: 3 points for a top spot, 2 for a middle slot and 1 for third choice. Second, the results: Overall, Ynnek and Bronx-man are the least trusted. Both get 6! mentions, but Ynnek is mentioned first more often than Bronx. Terra gets the next most mentions at 5, but he still gets the same overall score as Magnum. People distrust Magnum more heavily than they distrust Terrabyte. Sophia edges myself, but really ends up not too far ahead of the stragglers (myself, *Splinter and nin). Ty4on is naturally completely scoreless. Now strangely, Kyanrute did not receive a single mention either. Third, what does this mean? Firstly I will point out this is obviously not definitive. I doubt we want to start at the top of the list and lynch our way to the bottom. The score, while a decent guideline, is also not completely reliable since there may be little difference in "feeling" between someone's first and second choice, and third choices are probably very loosely decided. BUT, it still shows definite trends. Ynnek is the least trusted, but does not show up on 3 lists: Sophia, myself and Ty4on (and his own, naturally). Bronx is basically on par with Ynnek, but does not show up on 3 lists: Nin, Magnum and Ty4on (and again, naturally, his own) There's definitely something off in the 20xx boys, but which? I lean Terra's way, but he's a rough third while Magnum scores an extra primary vote along the way. That's what I'm posting on GAF. I'm not 100% sure how to wrap up the post, but I kind of want to throw a vote somewhere.
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Post by absolutbro on Jan 23, 2017 18:21:52 GMT -8
Imagine a quote box after the very first line of that post, and ending before the very last line.
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Post by absolutbro on Jan 23, 2017 18:23:26 GMT -8
It's actually not quite as bad as it could have been? Bronx is really close to Ynnek, and I think Magnum actually looks worse than you in the end. The complete drop of heat on Sophia from anyone but Ty4on is problematic, as is the way *Splinter, Nin and Kyanrute look so squeaky clean. I'm hoping this will actually put some scrutiny on them. "A little too clean" sort of deal.
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Post by ynnek7 on Jan 23, 2017 18:25:36 GMT -8
I'm up for the challenge, lol. We're going into this plan assuming they'll all go for it. I wouldn't be surprised to see some people completely ignore the results, but for those who do go with it it will definitely give you town credit.
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Post by absolutbro on Jan 23, 2017 18:27:40 GMT -8
Added the "caught Ames by weight of #2" bit into my post:
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Post by Terrabyte20xx on Jan 23, 2017 18:28:11 GMT -8
You forgot to mention the was rarely number one but was often number 2 bit from the show. That piece is critical as it puts the idea of going number two in their minds with out out right saying it. This is to go along with the weighted totals as Bronx is number two.
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Post by Terrabyte20xx on Jan 23, 2017 18:28:29 GMT -8
Nevermind then.
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Post by absolutbro on Jan 23, 2017 18:33:07 GMT -8
Changed:
They started looking into him and eventually caught him when people mentioned how much he had changed; new clothes, new car, new house, etc.
to
They started looking into him and eventually caught him when people coupled the result with his changed behaviour.
I am hoping people will go back to Bronx's behaviour being so 'different than usual'.
remind me, he can't be the SK, right?
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Post by absolutbro on Jan 23, 2017 18:39:57 GMT -8
Alright, here goes. Posting it in GAF
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Post by ynnek7 on Jan 23, 2017 18:46:05 GMT -8
Nope, unless some one else had a kill on the night he was blocked.
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Post by Terrabyte20xx on Jan 23, 2017 18:57:33 GMT -8
Did... Did it possibly just work?
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Post by absolutbro on Jan 23, 2017 19:09:19 GMT -8
I didn't really intend for that to go Kyan's way, but man, unintentional bonus there.
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Post by absolutbro on Jan 23, 2017 19:10:37 GMT -8
*Splinter, Bronx-man and Nin.
Posting that to remind me of who has been blocked.
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Post by ynnek7 on Jan 23, 2017 19:11:03 GMT -8
Good work, lol
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Post by absolutbro on Jan 24, 2017 12:28:42 GMT -8
As much as I hate to waste our lynch on someone we know is not the SK, I am hoping by throwing an sk mention into my Bronx vote that the SK will look elsewhere.
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Post by ynnek7 on Jan 24, 2017 12:28:47 GMT -8
Terra, I'm also missing from kyan's list. He formatted it differently so you might have missed it.
Didn't want to point it out myself in the main thread.
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