good to see ya, franconp. thanks for running Arkham!
3 shots seems a little weird for 15-ship game to me - it's a restriction, but barely (oh sorry Burb, bearly)
in a game with a typical one death per phase cycle, we stand a 40% chance of being dead by the time D4 rolls around
that doesn't account for higher profile ships like Ourokitty or FatSorian potentially being mafia targets, but I do think we should be relatively liberal with how we use our shots - maybe not blow them all by D4, but frontloading seems to be the better bet to me than backloading
I think the most likely pairs to "fly under the radar" will be #s 1, 5, 7, 9, 10, and 14, and I think they'd be the ones most likely to submit NKs if they're scum
since I would imagine that the scumteam is packing a limited-shot Ninja, it may be worth our while to Track on N1, given that I don't think they'd use a Ninja that early
From the pairs in bolded:
1 - Newbies. No idea. 5 - I don't remember if I played with Royal. He played Arkham. Not a really prolific poster. Don't know his partner. 7 - Didn't knew any of them. Now Kark is in there. The switch is weird, makes me think there was a mistake. I expect him to gambit day 1. 9 - I have played with both of them. FEP doesn't post much but I think I can make a read from him. I played only against townie Kitsune. 10- Played several times with Natiko. He post a lot. He is difficult to read, as he usually seems town as neutral but I don't know if he was a scum yet. Haven't played with Nomadic but from the games that I have read he made several mistakes. 14- Played with StarSketch before (modded SexyFish) but I don't know if I can get a read out of her.
I'm kinda worried with pair 8: Ty is a good player. I usually leans to townread him. Don't know Trigger.
I feel more confident to get reads from 11, 12 and 15. Played several games with them. From FatSorian I think I can make a read from Fat. Sorian is difficult. But I expect them to die quickly. If they don't it's very likely they are scum.
I usually overanalize posts so expect several long posts with quotes and some weird theories. Most likely they won't make sense or have a whole lot of holes in them. If you think they are not working just tell me.
I usually don't gambit. I don't think it's a good idea that I do it now. People can see it strange. If you want to do a gambit feel free to do it.
Day one usually I just try to make conversation and prod people with questions so I got more info further in the game. I will ask for opinions about another players and gamestyles. You can just play your regular game.
I won't be around for the first 3 hours of the game.
If I have to guess the start of the day will go: Sorian will have the first post (pretyped) where he will do his usual rundown of the mechanics of the game and general mafia concepts and will make a random vote. Then several players will make random votes (I'm thinking Exodus & Fireblend, Kitsune, TWE and some newbies). If one of the random votes fall on a newbie he will counter vote (OMGUS) or attack the voter. Kark will vote No Lynch and will push for everyone to vote like him. I also expect Nin, Ouro's team, Vere's team, Fat and Sophia to do a lot of shitpost at game start.
I would attack the OMGUS and counter-argument Kark but doing it mildly as both of them aren't indicators of aligment.
I mean, if you were playing scum, wouldn't you be more active with discussing strategies and stuff? If one person was just kind of inactive showing up, you'd probably be asking the mod to ping them or something, or to find out if something's wrong. In contrast, Love Boat 1 had a lot of chats that had minimal use.
This is oddly specific
I want to townread CrimSoph, but she's not making this easy for me