Post by crimsonfist on Jun 19, 2016 13:23:16 GMT -8
Oh, so there are multiple scum factions. Which of course is why Squidy bought up the possibility of it at the start of the day. Need to look back over that speculation then. And ofc this now no longer clears anyone who was voting Ri'Orius yesterday, so inviting Palmer may have been a mistake. Since they had to recruit players, it probably wasn't a very big faction though. Guess people don't get notified about receiving KB's since nobody claimed it.
What was that Kirkhammer command though? Nothing in his role PM about it, and Scrafty didn't shout at him for using it.
Read through. Not much to say except you're absolutely right that two scum teams muddies the water when it comes to who voted out scum. It should be fairly obvious I'm not HC, but especially after today, you'd be right to wonder if I was on the mensis team. Squidyj, on the other hand, heavily participated in both of these lynches, so he's either town or a neutral, IMO. I'm also inclined to believe Crimson is town.
Magnum, I'm unsure about. Your game thread play had you on a list to watch, but your stuff in here clears you a bit.
My biggest suspicions now are aimed at Johnny and Verelios.
I noticed that whilst Squidy voiced his approval early for the day 1 vote, he didn't actually place a vote until long after the bandwaggon had picked up, after the point where I'd assume that scum would be starting to jump on the wagon. I'm not so sure that clears him.
For an investigative role, maybe Kristof? Seeing as how he's been a lynch candidate both days, and will probably be bought up as one again in future, clearing up alignment could give a bit to work with.
Post by crimsonfist on Jun 20, 2016 15:18:14 GMT -8
Kriss I'm unsure on. He's at least been active and driving things forward, but his posting style kind of rubs me the wrong way. He was earlier on the Ri lynch train at least. I highlighted that point about three kills in the thread, but then I'm also willing to believe that it was legitimately due to the previous multiple factions discussion. Looking now, his day 2 feels a bit all over the place, lots of fluff and sarcasm. Bandwaggons on Hobo, then jumps to Freak without any real response or followup. Bandwaggons on Mazre, bandwaggons on Nudull when other people voice suspicion of them. On day 2, Verelios seems to be the only original suspicion he voices, and it doesn't feel like there's even any reason given for that until that waggon picks up at the end of the day.
MickD and Never Forever have some of the most suspect voting pasterns from the end of day 1. Looking at time stamps, there was a lot of last minute voting chaos going on, but those two were some of the last to jump on the Ri bandwaggon. Looking at Mick, seems like his main contribution day 2 was tunnelling Camjo for that "no lynch" thing, which he seems to have started on day 1. His day 1 is pretty awful, but then he is a new player. Not sure how much of a pass that should get though. The no lynch thing feels like kind of a weak, "easy" point to go after too.
Doesn't feel like there's much to go on for NF. bit of fluff speculation, not really much there on day 2. Day 1 was a bit better, but seems odd that they were reluctant for a Chair lynch (457) but then voted anyway (507).
Will look into Johnny, Weemad and Verelios in a bit
Post by crimsonfist on Jun 20, 2016 15:21:05 GMT -8
Kriss seems to trust Seath a lot too for some reason, but feels too obvious if they're scum partners, but otoh, that could be the point. Don't like how Seath seemed to be on and off Ri early on day 1, and he was voting there before any sort of momentum started to build.
Can you guys post your reads on Johnny, Never Forever, Weemadarthur, Verelios, and MickD? Maybe Kriss too. I didn't think he was scum D1, but he's been all over the place D2.
Johnny is kind of a null read for me. He hasn't really done anything that really stands out to me. He seems to post just enough to not get called out, but not really contributing much. He was opposed to the mazre Lynch, but wasn't actively defending him. He seemed to want to go after Kris or verelios instead.
Never forever fluctuates for me. Sometimes I read his posts and he seems like town, but other times he seems scummy. Right now my gut feeling is town, but it isn't really set in stone.
Weemad seemed liked town to me earlier, but now he seems off. He left his vote on haly the entire phase of day 1, but then never once voted nor pushed him on day 2. He just kept moving his vote around until he settled on you.
Verelios seems scummy to me. Like weemad, he only voted for haly on day 1 and also didn't continue pushing him. Unlike weemad though he does the exact same thing on day 2 only with Kris instead. Granted it was probably an OMGUS towards kris's earlier vote against him,but when Kris switched his vote to hobohodo, he never let up. He just kept insisting that Kris was scum. This type of reaction seems very suspicious to me.
MickD has been a non factor to me. He voted for Camjo on both day phases, with the day 1 vote being a random vote that he stuck with and the day 2 vote supposedly being caused by camjo's attempt at creating a tie to prevent a day 1 Lynch. Him not switching his votes in the late game phases might raise an eyebrow, but other then that he hasn't really done anything that I noticed that was really scummy.
Kris feels like town to me. He played well in the hot seat on day 1, which lead to the ri'oirus lynch. He also voted for both of the top two Lynch candidates on day 2.(mazre and verelios) granted he did throw his vote around, but to me it made sense. Other then mazre and verelios, he voted for: a previous day 1 Lynch candidate(the freakinchair vote), an inactive player(the hobo prod vote), and a player that got called out for going into defense mode on a post that wasn't calling them out(the Nudull pressure vote). Some of his day 2 posts were odd,but I'm willing to give him a pass for now.
Post by MagnumBoy20xx on Jun 20, 2016 18:45:03 GMT -8
Also, while looking at the vote lists for both days 1&2 I noticed that roytheone, Kalor, and squidyj all voted for both ri'orius and mazre who we know are members of the two scum factions. Unless there's a third one, I think that those three are safe bets to be town.
Post by crimsonfist on Jun 21, 2016 14:13:04 GMT -8
Actually, looking back, Kris's vote on Mazre was at least completely justified, considering that it followed Mazre's awful reply to Squidy.
Verelios: Day 1 his only real contribution was a vote on Haly. Day 2 there's a bit of fluff, a "prod" vote on Kris, which gradually evolves over the day to him being convinced that Kris is scum. Don't really see much in the way of him chasing other leads. Bit defensive when Roy calls out people who didn't vote Ri too.
Johnny's posts are few, but they're actually not that bad. He seems to chase points which at least haven't been raised before, and hasn't been tunnelling. There's nothing that stands out as overtly scummy. But on the other hand, he doesn't seem to have had much presence, and it's not like he's strongly pushed for any arguments either, I could see him being scum quite easily with that play style.
Weemad: her main day 2 contribution when she gets around to actually voting accounts to little more than poking inactives. Including Palmer, whom it would be silly to consider scum (at least Healing Church scum) at this point in the game.
Can't say I strongly town read anyone on that list then. If I had to rank them in terms of scum -> less scum: Johnny = Weemad > Ver = Mick > Kris > NF
Post by crimsonfist on Jun 22, 2016 14:15:43 GMT -8
Random thoughts: Chair is probably telling the truth, although could still be a neutral killer. Scrafty handled role blocks the same way in Final Fantasy (bit of a meta reason though). I was expecting him to be role blocked anyway. Nudull or Ver could be scum due to the block, but I wouldn't take it as given.