Mazre's Room
Feb 27, 2016 22:50:05 GMT -8
Post by Atheon on Feb 27, 2016 22:50:05 GMT -8
1
Karkador
05-13-2015
05:00 PM ET (US)
Moderator here:
Ground rules for this chat:
1) This chat is strictly between Mazre and whoever Mazre has invited, as part of their role power. Please do not share this link, nor copy/paste posts from here anywhere else.
2) Generally speaking: If you wouldn't do it in the public thread, don't do it here. Mazre does not know your role or alignment, and vice versa. Role claims and game information are totally allowed, but not guaranteed, and will not be confirmed by me here. If you have a question, it's probably better to PM me directly.
3) Once you're here, you're here for good. In the event that Mazre is eliminated, you will still be able to post here. However, once you're eliminated, you can't post here anymore.
4) Posting here is only allowed during the Night phase, but you are obviously allowed to read the posts whenever.
2
Mazre
05-14-2015
04:52 PM ET (US)
Greetings!
Heard any interesting news?
3
Hobohodo
05-14-2015
05:15 PM ET (US)
Hey!
Nope, nothing here unfortunately. Just been following along this roller coaster of a first day. So this is the ability you were on about then? Does that mean you have some ideas about how neighbours work if you had to pick someone?
4
Mazre
05-14-2015
05:43 PM ET (US)
Yep, this is it. As I said fairly minor. The big problem of course being we can't verify alignments here, unlike say the private chat for a 'Lovers' role.
Also, no I don't have any additional neighbor functionality insights currently.
5
Hobohodo
05-14-2015
06:26 PM ET (US)
I guess the main benefit is that over time this will let some of us speak at night seeing as night talk is a no go. Just gives us more chances to discus things once a few more of us get in here. Speaking of getting more players in can you invite anyone or just adjacent players?
6
Mazre
05-14-2015
07:26 PM ET (US)
Just adjacent players. Current plan is to invite one more tomorrow and then wait and see. Of course over night developments could certainly influence that.
7
Mazre
05-14-2015
10:18 PM ET (US)
Idle speculation: I don't think we'll ever be able to move to vacancies directly, but I wouldn't be surprised if someone has an action to move a player from one location to another, swapping seems plausible too.
8
Hobohodo
05-15-2015
08:29 AM ET (US)
II agree. If we can move houses then the roommates situation wouldn't last very long and you've got to imagine they are in it for the long haul if Kark has specifically chosen what roles he ties up there. The ability of someone to move/swap players seems likely though as I can't see those vacant spaces being unused in Karks plan.
9
kingkitty
05-21-2015
05:36 PM ET (US)
Hello, this is kingkitty. It's nice to have this secret chat with you all.
10
kingkitty
05-21-2015
06:13 PM ET (US)
anywho
I'm not 100 percent certain of your town alignment Mazre, since you could be mafia with the ability to secret chat. But I think that would be a bit of a weak role for a mafia to have. Also I have a feeling you're not alone with this type of role.
I don't know who you are Hobohobo. I hope you're not a neutral/mafia, but I can't be sure. To be honest, I sort of wanted Freakzilla to be voted out just so it could calm my fears about this chat. If he was mafia, the proximity from you guys would make me more certain of your non-mafia alignment. My gut says it's less likely for any of the 2-5 mafia to be located right next to be each over.
My ability is to vote. I don't have a special role. For now, I won't post the name of my role, since only non-special townies will know the proper title of this role. If one of you guys happen to be a mafia grunt, you could try to pass yourself off with this title in the regular forum. Other similar townies might think "oh this person knows the proper title, he must be legit".
Of course, I could also be mafia/neutral/special power townie who is simply lying. I might think that if one of these guys is mafia, and I tell them about my super awesome special power, they'll axe me real quick. But if I say I'm a regular Joe, I'll be a lower priority on their list.
People suspicious to me:
Timeisis = This guy could be big trouble if he's mafia/neutral. I don't have much evidence to suggest he's a bad guy, but he seems a bit more reserved compared to last mafia game. I'm going to keep an eye on him.
Freakzilla = I don't have any strong feelings about his behavior, but if he turns out to be mafia, then that could implicate Haly/RobotNinjaHornets as well.
People I want evicted for curiosity:
Ultron/franconp = Ultron's role claim is very interesting, could be a major bluff. And I have a nagging feeling there's something sinister inside that house. Although if mafia knows that neither roomie is one of their own, they might hope the town will do the hard work and evict the innocent roomies during the day phase. Besides probability, I don't have any real suspicion yet to say we should make the roomies homeless. Not yet.
So that's my thoughts so far.
11
Mazre
05-21-2015
07:21 PM ET (US)
Welcome, kingkitty.
I'm glad to see your healthy skepticism. There are certainly risks involved with this chat.
As you said one of the more interesting things revealed yesterday was the presence of someone else with the same role as me. Razmos claimed the same role and Timeaisis confirmed it. Additionally Foshy has claimed a role with similar 'use' mechanics though it's possible his does not result in a private chat but some other nighttime effect. That doesn't exclude the possibility though that one may be town aligned and one may be HHA aligned, in the event of a split alignment it would provide an excellent bluff/cover opportunity for the HHA member.
Freakzilla could be HHA but like the rest of the low activity players it's hard to get a solid read, hopefully participation will improve a little as the game continues.
I considered voting for the roomies again on day 2 but didn't feel there would be sufficient support, and might engender ill will from the rest of the town.
12
Mazre
05-21-2015
07:32 PM ET (US)
I've also been giving some thoughts on way to better utilize this chat. While we can only talk here during the night we can still read it during the day. This to me seems a wonderful opportunity to set up a simple code of some kind so that we can perform basic communication during the day. If we're smart about it we can collaborate during the day phase and even if the HHA has access to this chat they'll be limited in the action they can take against it. I need to think on it a little more but we have a few days during the night to set this up if we decide to pursue it. The messages should be simple but the encoding can be somewhat complex (or we can mix it up each phase) since we'll have the chat here as reference for decoding. My initial thought for messages would be a way to nominate candidates for eviction, 'yes', 'no', 'wait and see', things along those lines.
13
kingkitty
05-21-2015
08:19 PM ET (US)
hmm that sounds like an interesting idea.
14
Hobohodo
05-22-2015
10:38 AM ET (US)
Welcome king kitty,
The idea of a code is rather interesting if we can pull it off.
15
Mazre
05-24-2015
10:55 AM ET (US)
Time got away from me this weekend so no coded fun for day 3. Stay safe out there guys, hope to see you on night 3.
16
Hobohodo
05-28-2015
03:10 PM ET (US)
Well, we all made it through.
17
kingkitty
05-29-2015
01:53 AM ET (US)
alright, so it's obvious Mazre's official title is Town Gossip. And there seems to be at least 2-3 others.
very interesting. I wonder if there's a pattern we can point out on the town map. Seems like Mazre is just one space away from another town gossip , the space that you're in Hobodobo.
I got some more thoughts which I'll post laterish.
18
Mazre
05-29-2015
04:47 PM ET (US)
Yeah, we have 2 claimed gossips (effectively confirmed as it would require a substantial amount of mafia open mafia collusion to be otherwise) and our group we know about. Looking at the map the possibility of a 4th gossip seems to fall most likely on LMQ or LLMD to me. Both would be interesting for having access to the roomies, LLMD doubly so for access to Timeaisis, which would potentially indirectly link 3 of the gossip groups.
I requested Razmos to hold off inviting Hobohodo on the off chance that franconp does decide to investigate me tonight. The idea being that it would minimize the chance of information leak assuming that the scenario of franconp being HHA with an accomplice in Razmos' group panned out. Of course if either of you is HHA that would be somewhat moot as well =D, not much I can do to control for that currently.
Assuming Hobo and Razmos don't end up dead we'll likely have an indirect way to talk with Razmos/Darryl/Timeaisis come night 4. I can see benefits to engaging but also reason to be cautious, since you'd be the one relaying any messages, it's entirely up to you Hobo. I imagine it will depend on the events that occur between now and then.
19
kingkitty
05-30-2015
05:11 PM ET (US)
I don't know if we should risk relaying messages to team Razmos, at least not until we know for certain there isn't mafia scum involved. And of course, we need to be certain that no mafia are in this chat as well.
I might have made myself a slight target in the eyes of mafia by refusing to claim my role. Hopefully I don't get night evicted. But at this point, I don't see the point in making it easy for mafia. I'm not yet in trouble getting evicted by the town, and I don't see the advantage in giving mafia a clean list this early on of who is townie and who has a special role.
I'm uneasy about the roomie situation. Franconp's alleged role should make the roomies an even bigger target. If the roomies survive another night, there are some possible reasons (and maybe a combination):
1) One of the roomies is mafia.
2) Someone is using a role to protect the roomies. (But if that's true, why are there still evictions each night? Maybe mafia guesses that someone is probably protecting the roomies, so there's no point trying to waste an attack on them.)
3) Mafia hopes the town evicts the roomies for them.
If the roomies survive, I am VERY curious what franconp will say to prove his role.
It's probably my paranoia, but I found it interesting that RobotNinjaHornets said that I already claimed to be a townie. Which in the public forum, I have not. Could just be nothing. Or perhaps it was a slip by devious mafia. Perhaps RobotNinjaHornets is mafia and had an ability to check roles. Maybe Hobodobo is mafia, and told other mafia about my role claim (which could be a role claim bluff on my part). Or perhaps I'm just paranoid.
20
Hobohodo
05-30-2015
06:20 PM ET (US)
Yeah we can circle back to relaying messages in the next night phase after we know how it all plays out.
As well as LMQ and LLMD we also have Toma who would have been able to invite up to three people (Robot, Ouro and Tucah) without inviting another gossip into his chat, would be a possibility if Kark wanted an equal amount of gossips on each side of the river.
My gut tells me that the roomies are of two different allegiances, so a combination of Mafia/Town/Neutral, I just can't see what's gained by it being two members of the town but giving a 2 for 1 opportunity to the Mafia.
21
kingkitty
06-04-2015
02:50 PM ET (US)
sigh
please don't be mafia Hobodobo
22
Mazre
06-07-2015
11:58 AM ET (US)
Barring any major revelations I think I'm likely going to work towards a roomie eviction for day 5. I was considering it for day 4 but felt Toma (town or not) was also a reasonable approach to take. A few bits a pieces of things I had been thinking did actually pop up in day 4 comments so I think there may be some traction for the roommate eviction. I'll leave the details of my argument for day 5 though. At present I don't have any particularly strong feelings for who the HHA are, that being the main reason I'm focused on looking at people we can evict and still learn something regardless of their alignment.
23
kingkitty
06-07-2015
12:54 PM ET (US)
A roomie eviction? Seems a bit risky, especially if franconp is an investigator. I'll be interested to see your argument.
My gut for mafia points to RobotNinjaHornet and Haly. I'm a little busy with work so I'll probably outline my argument in Day 5, or Night 5.
24
Hobohodo
06-09-2015
04:53 PM ET (US)
Good game guys, hope you all burn! =P
25
Mazre
06-09-2015
05:35 PM ET (US)
gg Hobo.
Info dump incoming kingkitty, I'm not feeling too optimistic about surviving night 5.
26
Mazre
06-09-2015
06:27 PM ET (US)
Speculation on # of HHA:
Currently thinking 3-4 + 1. Minimum of 3 due to Timmy/Tommy/Tom Nook, +1 is the lost partner (I suspect this explains the night 3 no-evict, we thought it was good but in fact the HHA were likely bolstering their ranks). That leaves potentially one more in my mind.
Tommy is out, leading to a double evict, as has been said probably good we hit that sooner rather than later, though optimally we would have hit it last.
Timmy, dunno, could be just about anything.
Tom, godfather role seems most likely but could be something else.
Suspect that the lost partner has no additional power.
As for my other theoretical HHA? I still think the possibility of franconp is a somewhat reasonable one (more on this to come), investigator fits very well thematically with the HHA, in New Leaf they have a cadre of shadowy inspectors that sneak into peoples houses to appraise them. Extreme speculation to be sure but it does line up nicely. If the HHA have the only investigator in this game that would preclude the need for a godfather role.
27
Mazre
06-09-2015
06:36 PM ET (US)
As mentioned in previous post I think there's a strong possibility that night 3 the no-evict was actually the lost partner being picked up by HHA. Need to look over day 3 again to see if anything sticks out. It's entirely possible the HHA got lucky but there may have been an attempt to signal them or to unduly draw their attention.
28
Mazre
06-09-2015
06:40 PM ET (US)
Hobo's role PM also points out something interesting. For this game it would appear that HHA only has night-chat, not global chat as in the previous game according to RNH. Something to keep in mind when building theories around collusion.
29
kingkitty
06-10-2015
11:41 AM ET (US)
Lol, it would have been nice if hobodobo wasn't mafia. It would have made my forum caginess about my boring role seem like a better idea. I suppose I should have not role claimed here when I first got the chance, but I didn't come up with the idea of being cagey until a bit later when it seemed like everyone was role claiming villager.
Anyways here's some of my mafia thoughts:
1) As you've mentioned, most likely there are 3-4 mafia left. Last game, we had more players, and there were only 4 mafia plus 1 serial killer. I don't think there's a serial killer in this game.
2) Karkador is clever with his design choice. Putting Hobodobo right between two gossips. I thought it would be maybe too obvious to put a key player there...but here we all. With Hobodobo as mafia, I'm much more willing to think that at least one of the roomies are bad to the bone, based off Karkador's design habits. All spots on the map I think "oh that's /too/ obvious to put mafia", I'm going to look at with a more critical eye...which leads me to this gut hunch.
3) RobotNinjaHornets is piece of garbage mafia scum. Why? He's located between two light sleepers, just like Hobodobo was located between two gossips. Also a few day phases earlier, he said I claimed to be an ordinary villager while I was still being cagey about my role. Maybe Hobodobo told him.
4) If not RobotNinjaHornets, there is still probably mafia somewhere in the light sleeper area. It would seem like a waste of design to have two light sleepers cover that much of the area, and not have any mafiaoso in it. So RobotNinjaHornets, Haly, Ourobolus, and Foshy are leader contenders.
5) franconp or ultron are scum. Ultron's role causing two day evictions make me more suspicious. So we now supposedly have two roles that cause two evictions? An argument in ultron's favor is that it's a yin and yang thing, the townies get a role that causes two day evictions, and the mafia gets a role that causes two night evictions. But idk, if franconp truly is a cop, then I have no doubt that his roomie is pure, worthless, mafia garbage scum.
Ideally, Hobodobo should have died err got evicted by day 4. But regret will get us nowhere. We must now look towards the future for our little town...and that future looks a bit tight. We can probably afford maybe 1 more day phase where we have an innocent evicted. If we make any more mistakes, it's gonna look ugly for us I bet.
What's the rules about evictions and gossip chat, Karkador? If we're evicted, are we allowed to still look at the gossip chat? Hopefully Hobodobo isn't looking at this right now, lol.
30
Hobohodo
06-10-2015
04:03 PM ET (US)
Oh I'm looking KK, but all I can do is look! I won't dare say anything as I don't wanna be blacklisted from future games!
*Goes back to the grave*
31
kingkitty
06-10-2015
05:31 PM ET (US)
*shakes fist*
32
Mazre
06-10-2015
05:57 PM ET (US)
Borrowing your list numbers:
1)Agree doesn't seem to be evidence of a SK. As I mentioned earlier, the no-evict was likely due to the HHA and their lost partner, which suggests to me we don't have a doctor or blocker either.
2)Mostly agree, though I wouldn't put it past Karkador to include a red herring or two.
3/4) Certainly possible.
33
Karkador
06-10-2015
06:06 PM ET (US)
There's nothing I can do to stop Hobohodo from visiting the link I gave you all, but he's not allowed to post here (or in the HHA chat he was in)
34
Mazre
06-10-2015
06:46 PM ET (US)
Looks like Karkador has reconfirmed global HHA chat. Disregard previous speculation regarding HHA chat.
Remaining time:
So we're thinking 3-4 remaining, and they have the condition of outnumbering non-HHA. That means that a day ending in an equal number of non-hha and hha will almost guarantee (contingent on some mechanic we're currently unaware of) a HHA win. That makes population levels at 8 remaining and 6 remaining critical, (realistically any day we start with 9 or 7 remaining). We will most likely enter day 6 with 13-14 players, and should expect to see one player lost per phase the rest of the way. In short we have likely 2-3 day/night phases remaining (not counting tonight) before we hit the earliest HHA win. We gained about half a day I think from the Hobo evict, would be a full one but of course for the double night eviction.
On the subject of the roomies:
Assuming they survive to day 6 it seems highly likely that the HHA has a reason for keeping them other than hoping that the town will do the deed. Part of the reason I was interested in pushing for them day 5 prior to discovering Hobo was that the longer we wait the higher risk we face in doing so if there isn't an HHA there.
I feel a cop is all but confirmed at this point, it seems hard to believe that things would align well enough for it to be a complete fabrication this long into the game. That said, I still think franconp's alignment is up in the air.
He hasn't really done much of anything overtly not town to this point and his actions have been consistent with such. His rationale for his investigations have generally made sense.
Relatively early role claim: Said he felt under the spotlight, though looking back day 2 didn't see much roomie talk and 0 roomie votes. There were only 2 votes for them on day 1 as well. Day 3 as soon as he hit 2 votes he made his role claim.
35
Mazre
06-10-2015
06:59 PM ET (US)
roomies cont:
Most of this will be speculation towards franconp being HHA (it's pretty much all circumstantial/gut feeling)
The longevity has been extremely suspicious, especially considering franconp has claimed investigator. Having revealed his role, building trust would be incredibly important, being able to sway town actions at a critical juncture. The investigation of Hobo makes a certain amount of sense from a town perspective. He had received the second highest amount of votes and his location between the gossips made him interesting as well. The timing is also interesting because it immediately followed me stating in chat my intention to push for roomie evict on day 5, something Hobo could have reported back, there were also a few murmurs in day 4 arguments that people were still very wary of the roomie situation. Putting Hobo's role name out there was potentially win/win for HHA, give franconp a chance to throw us a big clue, and also gives Hobo the opportunity to attempt a doctor+ role claim. Worst case the HHA loses someone the town was highly suspicious of, best case they manage to cover 2 HHA with seemingly beneficial town power roles.
36
Mazre
06-10-2015
07:02 PM ET (US)
There's also the possibility that while the HHA have an investigator, it could be someone other than franconp. They could easily relay information through their chat to make it seamlessly appear as if he was the investigator. Why go to the trouble? If franconp wasn't a potential town power role we'd be more willing to risk a roomie eviction, plus the added benefit of becoming a trusty contributing member. No direct evidence to this effect so more than likely this is not the case.
37
Mazre
06-10-2015
07:11 PM ET (US)
So all in all my inclination to remove the roomies isn't about some certainty that HHA is there but more about removing the question marks surrounding them while we still can. As with my argument to evict Toma I think we learn something regardless if we're right or wrong about their alignment. When we evicted hippie, freak, and salva we gained minimal information, it may pay off down the road if we can establish patterns. This will be difficult if HHA has been careful. Seems to be easy to me for HHA to mix up their habits well enough to avoid detection given the small number of samples. The day 4 vote is important because we had nearly all votes cast (I think missing only the evictee and the 2 AWOL players) and because it was split between almost exclusively two candidates. It's likely that there was at least 1 bus vote on day 5 as well, though I'd be surprised if they all bused Hobo.
38
Mazre
06-10-2015
07:12 PM ET (US)
Think that's it for this evening, need to take a break and collect my thoughts again. Also need to review day 3 like I said to look for any behavior that may have been intended to attract HHA attention (lost partner)
39
kingkitty
06-11-2015
03:04 PM ET (US)
It is likely some voted for Salvapot. Although if they're clever, they definitely wouldn't try to have everyone vote for the same guy. Would look pretty bad when Hobodobo got caught.
My gut is more certain than ever that the roomies have at least one scum involved. If franconp is mafia, it would be a good tactic to earn the trust of townies by outing one of own. I do think mafia might have an investigation type role of their own, how else could they find the lost partner?
I'm gonna eat and taco and mull over the thread a bit.
40
kingkitty
06-11-2015
03:04 PM ET (US)
*eat a taco
41
Mazre
06-11-2015
06:38 PM ET (US)
Hrmm hadn't considered that use for investigator HHA side, not bad.
My day 3 reviews is in progress and turned up this nugget, Razmos in post #740 mentions something being revealed in his gossip chat, I've searched his subsequent posts in the thread and this never resurfaces. This is somewhat odd considering Timeaisis and Daryll have both claimed ordinary villager. Something to follow up on in day 6.
42
Mazre
06-11-2015
06:40 PM ET (US)
Re: lost partner- don't forget he knows who the HHA are and they know he at least exists. Even without an investigator, if you know to look for a signal it's easier to spot one without everyone else in the thread seeing it.
43
Mazre
06-11-2015
06:54 PM ET (US)
Fairly confident Kalor/Toma are legit. Super paranoia scenario is they're HHA colluding together. But assuming they're legit the most interesting thing to me is what happened night 1? Kalor heard something but Toma didn't. This means there was either an inbound action on Haly, Kalor, you, or me, OR an outbound action by Haly or you. Night actions we currently know of are investigation, eviction, and Tucah's commuting. The odd-numbered commuter is still possible. My gut says an HHA action is likely, though what I'm not sure, also hard to say if it was inbound or outbound. This point could certainly prove important down the line.
44
Mazre
06-11-2015
07:07 PM ET (US)
Been through day 3 once and nothing is particularly jumping out at me re: lost partner.
Think I've covered most of my current thoughts on the game, will post if anything else comes up. Hope to be around day 6, but if not hope you're town, and that you guys pull off the win. It's been a lot of fun.
45
kingkitty
06-12-2015
02:14 AM ET (US)
Looking back, I can't find any real hints on the lost partner either.
I looked over some Hobodobo posts. He once said Haly was trustworthy, maybe to cover another mafia's back, or did it just to look legitimate. He also voted for nin1000 in one of the day phases, maybe as a way to look legitimate to the others by voting for mafia, or that nin1000 and Hobodobo are not on the same scum team.
Anyways, here's my final list of scum bros, ranked from "maybe" to "eh maybe?":
1) The roomies. At least one, I'm gonna say just one only. I think we should still hear what francnop has to say about his investigation. It would be...a bit dicey for mafia to roleclaim investigator. They don't know if there's another special role that does the same thing. eh idk, but it has to be either ultron or franconp. I kind of want to see ultron use his role (if that's what his role really does), but I don't know if that would be the best option. If we mis-evict 2 people instead of 1, well GG.
If franconp ends up mafia, then we should consider timeaisis as a suspect again.
1) RobotNinjaHornets or Haly: One of these two. I'm gonna go all out and stick with the idea that mafia don't border each other. So it's either Robo or Haly, but not both. We can't really afford to evict another innocent, so I'm gonna swing towards RobotNinjaHornets. He's located in a suspicious spot on the map. He knew about my role (supposedly a misunderstanding) despite me not roleclaiming. He refused to vote for Hobodobo on Day 4.
3) Ourobolus: idk, my gut
A big thing that's irking me is that toma said he didn't get any activity for any of his nights. But kalor did. RobotNinjaHornets is placed between both of these light sleepers, so could one assume RobotNinjaHornets didn't send in any kills. And wasn't investigated by mafia looking for their lost relative. HOWEVER, there's this silent killer theory that popped up because Tucah's death didn't pop up on Toma's radar. So perhaps RobotNinjaHornets is a silent killer? ehh! Or maybe he's mafia and just never bothered to send in a kill.
Also Ourobolus was in the same area of no activity. He might also be the silent killer/never bothered to send in a kill.
We need to make sure the light sleepers clearly lay out everything they know up to this day phase.
Anyways I hope we both pull through somehow. If you end up evicted, I'll be sure to pass on your thoughts to the thread.
46
Hobohodo
06-12-2015
04:14 PM ET (US)
YOUR ALL ALONE KING KITTY
ALL ALONE
MWAHAHAHAHAHAH
47
kingkitty
06-16-2015
04:06 PM ET (US)
heh
48
kingkitty
06-16-2015
04:52 PM ET (US)
woops, wrong secret chat, my b.Edited 06-16-2015 04:52 PM
49
Hobohodo
06-17-2015
04:53 PM ET (US)
Maybe we just haunt this place now, we are all dead after all.
Karkador
05-13-2015
05:00 PM ET (US)
Moderator here:
Ground rules for this chat:
1) This chat is strictly between Mazre and whoever Mazre has invited, as part of their role power. Please do not share this link, nor copy/paste posts from here anywhere else.
2) Generally speaking: If you wouldn't do it in the public thread, don't do it here. Mazre does not know your role or alignment, and vice versa. Role claims and game information are totally allowed, but not guaranteed, and will not be confirmed by me here. If you have a question, it's probably better to PM me directly.
3) Once you're here, you're here for good. In the event that Mazre is eliminated, you will still be able to post here. However, once you're eliminated, you can't post here anymore.
4) Posting here is only allowed during the Night phase, but you are obviously allowed to read the posts whenever.
2
Mazre
05-14-2015
04:52 PM ET (US)
Greetings!
Heard any interesting news?
3
Hobohodo
05-14-2015
05:15 PM ET (US)
Hey!
Nope, nothing here unfortunately. Just been following along this roller coaster of a first day. So this is the ability you were on about then? Does that mean you have some ideas about how neighbours work if you had to pick someone?
4
Mazre
05-14-2015
05:43 PM ET (US)
Yep, this is it. As I said fairly minor. The big problem of course being we can't verify alignments here, unlike say the private chat for a 'Lovers' role.
Also, no I don't have any additional neighbor functionality insights currently.
5
Hobohodo
05-14-2015
06:26 PM ET (US)
I guess the main benefit is that over time this will let some of us speak at night seeing as night talk is a no go. Just gives us more chances to discus things once a few more of us get in here. Speaking of getting more players in can you invite anyone or just adjacent players?
6
Mazre
05-14-2015
07:26 PM ET (US)
Just adjacent players. Current plan is to invite one more tomorrow and then wait and see. Of course over night developments could certainly influence that.
7
Mazre
05-14-2015
10:18 PM ET (US)
Idle speculation: I don't think we'll ever be able to move to vacancies directly, but I wouldn't be surprised if someone has an action to move a player from one location to another, swapping seems plausible too.
8
Hobohodo
05-15-2015
08:29 AM ET (US)
II agree. If we can move houses then the roommates situation wouldn't last very long and you've got to imagine they are in it for the long haul if Kark has specifically chosen what roles he ties up there. The ability of someone to move/swap players seems likely though as I can't see those vacant spaces being unused in Karks plan.
9
kingkitty
05-21-2015
05:36 PM ET (US)
Hello, this is kingkitty. It's nice to have this secret chat with you all.
10
kingkitty
05-21-2015
06:13 PM ET (US)
anywho
I'm not 100 percent certain of your town alignment Mazre, since you could be mafia with the ability to secret chat. But I think that would be a bit of a weak role for a mafia to have. Also I have a feeling you're not alone with this type of role.
I don't know who you are Hobohobo. I hope you're not a neutral/mafia, but I can't be sure. To be honest, I sort of wanted Freakzilla to be voted out just so it could calm my fears about this chat. If he was mafia, the proximity from you guys would make me more certain of your non-mafia alignment. My gut says it's less likely for any of the 2-5 mafia to be located right next to be each over.
My ability is to vote. I don't have a special role. For now, I won't post the name of my role, since only non-special townies will know the proper title of this role. If one of you guys happen to be a mafia grunt, you could try to pass yourself off with this title in the regular forum. Other similar townies might think "oh this person knows the proper title, he must be legit".
Of course, I could also be mafia/neutral/special power townie who is simply lying. I might think that if one of these guys is mafia, and I tell them about my super awesome special power, they'll axe me real quick. But if I say I'm a regular Joe, I'll be a lower priority on their list.
People suspicious to me:
Timeisis = This guy could be big trouble if he's mafia/neutral. I don't have much evidence to suggest he's a bad guy, but he seems a bit more reserved compared to last mafia game. I'm going to keep an eye on him.
Freakzilla = I don't have any strong feelings about his behavior, but if he turns out to be mafia, then that could implicate Haly/RobotNinjaHornets as well.
People I want evicted for curiosity:
Ultron/franconp = Ultron's role claim is very interesting, could be a major bluff. And I have a nagging feeling there's something sinister inside that house. Although if mafia knows that neither roomie is one of their own, they might hope the town will do the hard work and evict the innocent roomies during the day phase. Besides probability, I don't have any real suspicion yet to say we should make the roomies homeless. Not yet.
So that's my thoughts so far.
11
Mazre
05-21-2015
07:21 PM ET (US)
Welcome, kingkitty.
I'm glad to see your healthy skepticism. There are certainly risks involved with this chat.
As you said one of the more interesting things revealed yesterday was the presence of someone else with the same role as me. Razmos claimed the same role and Timeaisis confirmed it. Additionally Foshy has claimed a role with similar 'use' mechanics though it's possible his does not result in a private chat but some other nighttime effect. That doesn't exclude the possibility though that one may be town aligned and one may be HHA aligned, in the event of a split alignment it would provide an excellent bluff/cover opportunity for the HHA member.
Freakzilla could be HHA but like the rest of the low activity players it's hard to get a solid read, hopefully participation will improve a little as the game continues.
I considered voting for the roomies again on day 2 but didn't feel there would be sufficient support, and might engender ill will from the rest of the town.
12
Mazre
05-21-2015
07:32 PM ET (US)
I've also been giving some thoughts on way to better utilize this chat. While we can only talk here during the night we can still read it during the day. This to me seems a wonderful opportunity to set up a simple code of some kind so that we can perform basic communication during the day. If we're smart about it we can collaborate during the day phase and even if the HHA has access to this chat they'll be limited in the action they can take against it. I need to think on it a little more but we have a few days during the night to set this up if we decide to pursue it. The messages should be simple but the encoding can be somewhat complex (or we can mix it up each phase) since we'll have the chat here as reference for decoding. My initial thought for messages would be a way to nominate candidates for eviction, 'yes', 'no', 'wait and see', things along those lines.
13
kingkitty
05-21-2015
08:19 PM ET (US)
hmm that sounds like an interesting idea.
14
Hobohodo
05-22-2015
10:38 AM ET (US)
Welcome king kitty,
The idea of a code is rather interesting if we can pull it off.
15
Mazre
05-24-2015
10:55 AM ET (US)
Time got away from me this weekend so no coded fun for day 3. Stay safe out there guys, hope to see you on night 3.
16
Hobohodo
05-28-2015
03:10 PM ET (US)
Well, we all made it through.
17
kingkitty
05-29-2015
01:53 AM ET (US)
alright, so it's obvious Mazre's official title is Town Gossip. And there seems to be at least 2-3 others.
very interesting. I wonder if there's a pattern we can point out on the town map. Seems like Mazre is just one space away from another town gossip , the space that you're in Hobodobo.
I got some more thoughts which I'll post laterish.
18
Mazre
05-29-2015
04:47 PM ET (US)
Yeah, we have 2 claimed gossips (effectively confirmed as it would require a substantial amount of mafia open mafia collusion to be otherwise) and our group we know about. Looking at the map the possibility of a 4th gossip seems to fall most likely on LMQ or LLMD to me. Both would be interesting for having access to the roomies, LLMD doubly so for access to Timeaisis, which would potentially indirectly link 3 of the gossip groups.
I requested Razmos to hold off inviting Hobohodo on the off chance that franconp does decide to investigate me tonight. The idea being that it would minimize the chance of information leak assuming that the scenario of franconp being HHA with an accomplice in Razmos' group panned out. Of course if either of you is HHA that would be somewhat moot as well =D, not much I can do to control for that currently.
Assuming Hobo and Razmos don't end up dead we'll likely have an indirect way to talk with Razmos/Darryl/Timeaisis come night 4. I can see benefits to engaging but also reason to be cautious, since you'd be the one relaying any messages, it's entirely up to you Hobo. I imagine it will depend on the events that occur between now and then.
19
kingkitty
05-30-2015
05:11 PM ET (US)
I don't know if we should risk relaying messages to team Razmos, at least not until we know for certain there isn't mafia scum involved. And of course, we need to be certain that no mafia are in this chat as well.
I might have made myself a slight target in the eyes of mafia by refusing to claim my role. Hopefully I don't get night evicted. But at this point, I don't see the point in making it easy for mafia. I'm not yet in trouble getting evicted by the town, and I don't see the advantage in giving mafia a clean list this early on of who is townie and who has a special role.
I'm uneasy about the roomie situation. Franconp's alleged role should make the roomies an even bigger target. If the roomies survive another night, there are some possible reasons (and maybe a combination):
1) One of the roomies is mafia.
2) Someone is using a role to protect the roomies. (But if that's true, why are there still evictions each night? Maybe mafia guesses that someone is probably protecting the roomies, so there's no point trying to waste an attack on them.)
3) Mafia hopes the town evicts the roomies for them.
If the roomies survive, I am VERY curious what franconp will say to prove his role.
It's probably my paranoia, but I found it interesting that RobotNinjaHornets said that I already claimed to be a townie. Which in the public forum, I have not. Could just be nothing. Or perhaps it was a slip by devious mafia. Perhaps RobotNinjaHornets is mafia and had an ability to check roles. Maybe Hobodobo is mafia, and told other mafia about my role claim (which could be a role claim bluff on my part). Or perhaps I'm just paranoid.
20
Hobohodo
05-30-2015
06:20 PM ET (US)
Yeah we can circle back to relaying messages in the next night phase after we know how it all plays out.
As well as LMQ and LLMD we also have Toma who would have been able to invite up to three people (Robot, Ouro and Tucah) without inviting another gossip into his chat, would be a possibility if Kark wanted an equal amount of gossips on each side of the river.
My gut tells me that the roomies are of two different allegiances, so a combination of Mafia/Town/Neutral, I just can't see what's gained by it being two members of the town but giving a 2 for 1 opportunity to the Mafia.
21
kingkitty
06-04-2015
02:50 PM ET (US)
sigh
please don't be mafia Hobodobo
22
Mazre
06-07-2015
11:58 AM ET (US)
Barring any major revelations I think I'm likely going to work towards a roomie eviction for day 5. I was considering it for day 4 but felt Toma (town or not) was also a reasonable approach to take. A few bits a pieces of things I had been thinking did actually pop up in day 4 comments so I think there may be some traction for the roommate eviction. I'll leave the details of my argument for day 5 though. At present I don't have any particularly strong feelings for who the HHA are, that being the main reason I'm focused on looking at people we can evict and still learn something regardless of their alignment.
23
kingkitty
06-07-2015
12:54 PM ET (US)
A roomie eviction? Seems a bit risky, especially if franconp is an investigator. I'll be interested to see your argument.
My gut for mafia points to RobotNinjaHornet and Haly. I'm a little busy with work so I'll probably outline my argument in Day 5, or Night 5.
24
Hobohodo
06-09-2015
04:53 PM ET (US)
Good game guys, hope you all burn! =P
25
Mazre
06-09-2015
05:35 PM ET (US)
gg Hobo.
Info dump incoming kingkitty, I'm not feeling too optimistic about surviving night 5.
26
Mazre
06-09-2015
06:27 PM ET (US)
Speculation on # of HHA:
Currently thinking 3-4 + 1. Minimum of 3 due to Timmy/Tommy/Tom Nook, +1 is the lost partner (I suspect this explains the night 3 no-evict, we thought it was good but in fact the HHA were likely bolstering their ranks). That leaves potentially one more in my mind.
Tommy is out, leading to a double evict, as has been said probably good we hit that sooner rather than later, though optimally we would have hit it last.
Timmy, dunno, could be just about anything.
Tom, godfather role seems most likely but could be something else.
Suspect that the lost partner has no additional power.
As for my other theoretical HHA? I still think the possibility of franconp is a somewhat reasonable one (more on this to come), investigator fits very well thematically with the HHA, in New Leaf they have a cadre of shadowy inspectors that sneak into peoples houses to appraise them. Extreme speculation to be sure but it does line up nicely. If the HHA have the only investigator in this game that would preclude the need for a godfather role.
27
Mazre
06-09-2015
06:36 PM ET (US)
As mentioned in previous post I think there's a strong possibility that night 3 the no-evict was actually the lost partner being picked up by HHA. Need to look over day 3 again to see if anything sticks out. It's entirely possible the HHA got lucky but there may have been an attempt to signal them or to unduly draw their attention.
28
Mazre
06-09-2015
06:40 PM ET (US)
Hobo's role PM also points out something interesting. For this game it would appear that HHA only has night-chat, not global chat as in the previous game according to RNH. Something to keep in mind when building theories around collusion.
29
kingkitty
06-10-2015
11:41 AM ET (US)
Lol, it would have been nice if hobodobo wasn't mafia. It would have made my forum caginess about my boring role seem like a better idea. I suppose I should have not role claimed here when I first got the chance, but I didn't come up with the idea of being cagey until a bit later when it seemed like everyone was role claiming villager.
Anyways here's some of my mafia thoughts:
1) As you've mentioned, most likely there are 3-4 mafia left. Last game, we had more players, and there were only 4 mafia plus 1 serial killer. I don't think there's a serial killer in this game.
2) Karkador is clever with his design choice. Putting Hobodobo right between two gossips. I thought it would be maybe too obvious to put a key player there...but here we all. With Hobodobo as mafia, I'm much more willing to think that at least one of the roomies are bad to the bone, based off Karkador's design habits. All spots on the map I think "oh that's /too/ obvious to put mafia", I'm going to look at with a more critical eye...which leads me to this gut hunch.
3) RobotNinjaHornets is piece of garbage mafia scum. Why? He's located between two light sleepers, just like Hobodobo was located between two gossips. Also a few day phases earlier, he said I claimed to be an ordinary villager while I was still being cagey about my role. Maybe Hobodobo told him.
4) If not RobotNinjaHornets, there is still probably mafia somewhere in the light sleeper area. It would seem like a waste of design to have two light sleepers cover that much of the area, and not have any mafiaoso in it. So RobotNinjaHornets, Haly, Ourobolus, and Foshy are leader contenders.
5) franconp or ultron are scum. Ultron's role causing two day evictions make me more suspicious. So we now supposedly have two roles that cause two evictions? An argument in ultron's favor is that it's a yin and yang thing, the townies get a role that causes two day evictions, and the mafia gets a role that causes two night evictions. But idk, if franconp truly is a cop, then I have no doubt that his roomie is pure, worthless, mafia garbage scum.
Ideally, Hobodobo should have died err got evicted by day 4. But regret will get us nowhere. We must now look towards the future for our little town...and that future looks a bit tight. We can probably afford maybe 1 more day phase where we have an innocent evicted. If we make any more mistakes, it's gonna look ugly for us I bet.
What's the rules about evictions and gossip chat, Karkador? If we're evicted, are we allowed to still look at the gossip chat? Hopefully Hobodobo isn't looking at this right now, lol.
30
Hobohodo
06-10-2015
04:03 PM ET (US)
Oh I'm looking KK, but all I can do is look! I won't dare say anything as I don't wanna be blacklisted from future games!
*Goes back to the grave*
31
kingkitty
06-10-2015
05:31 PM ET (US)
*shakes fist*
32
Mazre
06-10-2015
05:57 PM ET (US)
Borrowing your list numbers:
1)Agree doesn't seem to be evidence of a SK. As I mentioned earlier, the no-evict was likely due to the HHA and their lost partner, which suggests to me we don't have a doctor or blocker either.
2)Mostly agree, though I wouldn't put it past Karkador to include a red herring or two.
3/4) Certainly possible.
33
Karkador
06-10-2015
06:06 PM ET (US)
There's nothing I can do to stop Hobohodo from visiting the link I gave you all, but he's not allowed to post here (or in the HHA chat he was in)
34
Mazre
06-10-2015
06:46 PM ET (US)
Looks like Karkador has reconfirmed global HHA chat. Disregard previous speculation regarding HHA chat.
Remaining time:
So we're thinking 3-4 remaining, and they have the condition of outnumbering non-HHA. That means that a day ending in an equal number of non-hha and hha will almost guarantee (contingent on some mechanic we're currently unaware of) a HHA win. That makes population levels at 8 remaining and 6 remaining critical, (realistically any day we start with 9 or 7 remaining). We will most likely enter day 6 with 13-14 players, and should expect to see one player lost per phase the rest of the way. In short we have likely 2-3 day/night phases remaining (not counting tonight) before we hit the earliest HHA win. We gained about half a day I think from the Hobo evict, would be a full one but of course for the double night eviction.
On the subject of the roomies:
Assuming they survive to day 6 it seems highly likely that the HHA has a reason for keeping them other than hoping that the town will do the deed. Part of the reason I was interested in pushing for them day 5 prior to discovering Hobo was that the longer we wait the higher risk we face in doing so if there isn't an HHA there.
I feel a cop is all but confirmed at this point, it seems hard to believe that things would align well enough for it to be a complete fabrication this long into the game. That said, I still think franconp's alignment is up in the air.
He hasn't really done much of anything overtly not town to this point and his actions have been consistent with such. His rationale for his investigations have generally made sense.
Relatively early role claim: Said he felt under the spotlight, though looking back day 2 didn't see much roomie talk and 0 roomie votes. There were only 2 votes for them on day 1 as well. Day 3 as soon as he hit 2 votes he made his role claim.
35
Mazre
06-10-2015
06:59 PM ET (US)
roomies cont:
Most of this will be speculation towards franconp being HHA (it's pretty much all circumstantial/gut feeling)
The longevity has been extremely suspicious, especially considering franconp has claimed investigator. Having revealed his role, building trust would be incredibly important, being able to sway town actions at a critical juncture. The investigation of Hobo makes a certain amount of sense from a town perspective. He had received the second highest amount of votes and his location between the gossips made him interesting as well. The timing is also interesting because it immediately followed me stating in chat my intention to push for roomie evict on day 5, something Hobo could have reported back, there were also a few murmurs in day 4 arguments that people were still very wary of the roomie situation. Putting Hobo's role name out there was potentially win/win for HHA, give franconp a chance to throw us a big clue, and also gives Hobo the opportunity to attempt a doctor+ role claim. Worst case the HHA loses someone the town was highly suspicious of, best case they manage to cover 2 HHA with seemingly beneficial town power roles.
36
Mazre
06-10-2015
07:02 PM ET (US)
There's also the possibility that while the HHA have an investigator, it could be someone other than franconp. They could easily relay information through their chat to make it seamlessly appear as if he was the investigator. Why go to the trouble? If franconp wasn't a potential town power role we'd be more willing to risk a roomie eviction, plus the added benefit of becoming a trusty contributing member. No direct evidence to this effect so more than likely this is not the case.
37
Mazre
06-10-2015
07:11 PM ET (US)
So all in all my inclination to remove the roomies isn't about some certainty that HHA is there but more about removing the question marks surrounding them while we still can. As with my argument to evict Toma I think we learn something regardless if we're right or wrong about their alignment. When we evicted hippie, freak, and salva we gained minimal information, it may pay off down the road if we can establish patterns. This will be difficult if HHA has been careful. Seems to be easy to me for HHA to mix up their habits well enough to avoid detection given the small number of samples. The day 4 vote is important because we had nearly all votes cast (I think missing only the evictee and the 2 AWOL players) and because it was split between almost exclusively two candidates. It's likely that there was at least 1 bus vote on day 5 as well, though I'd be surprised if they all bused Hobo.
38
Mazre
06-10-2015
07:12 PM ET (US)
Think that's it for this evening, need to take a break and collect my thoughts again. Also need to review day 3 like I said to look for any behavior that may have been intended to attract HHA attention (lost partner)
39
kingkitty
06-11-2015
03:04 PM ET (US)
It is likely some voted for Salvapot. Although if they're clever, they definitely wouldn't try to have everyone vote for the same guy. Would look pretty bad when Hobodobo got caught.
My gut is more certain than ever that the roomies have at least one scum involved. If franconp is mafia, it would be a good tactic to earn the trust of townies by outing one of own. I do think mafia might have an investigation type role of their own, how else could they find the lost partner?
I'm gonna eat and taco and mull over the thread a bit.
40
kingkitty
06-11-2015
03:04 PM ET (US)
*eat a taco
41
Mazre
06-11-2015
06:38 PM ET (US)
Hrmm hadn't considered that use for investigator HHA side, not bad.
My day 3 reviews is in progress and turned up this nugget, Razmos in post #740 mentions something being revealed in his gossip chat, I've searched his subsequent posts in the thread and this never resurfaces. This is somewhat odd considering Timeaisis and Daryll have both claimed ordinary villager. Something to follow up on in day 6.
42
Mazre
06-11-2015
06:40 PM ET (US)
Re: lost partner- don't forget he knows who the HHA are and they know he at least exists. Even without an investigator, if you know to look for a signal it's easier to spot one without everyone else in the thread seeing it.
43
Mazre
06-11-2015
06:54 PM ET (US)
Fairly confident Kalor/Toma are legit. Super paranoia scenario is they're HHA colluding together. But assuming they're legit the most interesting thing to me is what happened night 1? Kalor heard something but Toma didn't. This means there was either an inbound action on Haly, Kalor, you, or me, OR an outbound action by Haly or you. Night actions we currently know of are investigation, eviction, and Tucah's commuting. The odd-numbered commuter is still possible. My gut says an HHA action is likely, though what I'm not sure, also hard to say if it was inbound or outbound. This point could certainly prove important down the line.
44
Mazre
06-11-2015
07:07 PM ET (US)
Been through day 3 once and nothing is particularly jumping out at me re: lost partner.
Think I've covered most of my current thoughts on the game, will post if anything else comes up. Hope to be around day 6, but if not hope you're town, and that you guys pull off the win. It's been a lot of fun.
45
kingkitty
06-12-2015
02:14 AM ET (US)
Looking back, I can't find any real hints on the lost partner either.
I looked over some Hobodobo posts. He once said Haly was trustworthy, maybe to cover another mafia's back, or did it just to look legitimate. He also voted for nin1000 in one of the day phases, maybe as a way to look legitimate to the others by voting for mafia, or that nin1000 and Hobodobo are not on the same scum team.
Anyways, here's my final list of scum bros, ranked from "maybe" to "eh maybe?":
1) The roomies. At least one, I'm gonna say just one only. I think we should still hear what francnop has to say about his investigation. It would be...a bit dicey for mafia to roleclaim investigator. They don't know if there's another special role that does the same thing. eh idk, but it has to be either ultron or franconp. I kind of want to see ultron use his role (if that's what his role really does), but I don't know if that would be the best option. If we mis-evict 2 people instead of 1, well GG.
If franconp ends up mafia, then we should consider timeaisis as a suspect again.
1) RobotNinjaHornets or Haly: One of these two. I'm gonna go all out and stick with the idea that mafia don't border each other. So it's either Robo or Haly, but not both. We can't really afford to evict another innocent, so I'm gonna swing towards RobotNinjaHornets. He's located in a suspicious spot on the map. He knew about my role (supposedly a misunderstanding) despite me not roleclaiming. He refused to vote for Hobodobo on Day 4.
3) Ourobolus: idk, my gut
A big thing that's irking me is that toma said he didn't get any activity for any of his nights. But kalor did. RobotNinjaHornets is placed between both of these light sleepers, so could one assume RobotNinjaHornets didn't send in any kills. And wasn't investigated by mafia looking for their lost relative. HOWEVER, there's this silent killer theory that popped up because Tucah's death didn't pop up on Toma's radar. So perhaps RobotNinjaHornets is a silent killer? ehh! Or maybe he's mafia and just never bothered to send in a kill.
Also Ourobolus was in the same area of no activity. He might also be the silent killer/never bothered to send in a kill.
We need to make sure the light sleepers clearly lay out everything they know up to this day phase.
Anyways I hope we both pull through somehow. If you end up evicted, I'll be sure to pass on your thoughts to the thread.
46
Hobohodo
06-12-2015
04:14 PM ET (US)
YOUR ALL ALONE KING KITTY
ALL ALONE
MWAHAHAHAHAHAH
47
kingkitty
06-16-2015
04:06 PM ET (US)
heh
48
kingkitty
06-16-2015
04:52 PM ET (US)
woops, wrong secret chat, my b.Edited 06-16-2015 04:52 PM
49
Hobohodo
06-17-2015
04:53 PM ET (US)
Maybe we just haunt this place now, we are all dead after all.